Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Round 6 Results / Round 7 Predictions

Unfortunately due to having a presentation and a biology assignment due tomorrow much like last night there will be no games again although I might cover some of the exciting ones in a later update who knows. Anyways for this round there were quite a few surprising results. For one Onischuk won from what looked like an inferior position. Kudrin then liquidated to a rook endgame where he was up a pawn, but in serious trouble. Onischuk showed his technique to convert for the full point. That coupled with a draw by Gurevich puts him back in clear first. Schneider also beat Friedel to join the tie for second place. On lower boards Nakamura continued his winning ways over Goletiani trying to mount a comeback and Elizabeth Vicary scored an impressive win over Igor Schneider.
In group B there weren't too many surprises at the top other than Novikov beating Shabalov very nicely to land in clear second place having already played Shulman. Going down to lower boards Abrahamyan beat Muhammad to join Zatonskih for second place for the women in group B. Tuvshintugs lost to Kamsky but due to her previous huge lead still is in clear first in the womens race.


Group A:
1st: Onischuk (5)
2nd: Gurevich, Schneider (4.5)
4th-7th: Ibragimov, Akobian, Stripunsky, de Firmian (4)

Womens: Goletiani (3), Vicary (2.5)

Group B:
1st: Shulman (5)
2nd: Novikov (4.5)
3rd-4th: Kamsky, Christiansen

Womens: Tuvshintugs(3.5), Zatoniskih, Abrahamyan (3)

So there are some close races with just three rounds remaining.

So my predictions fell to 2/6 today, but that's about what's expected. My overall record is 16/36. For tomorrow:
Group A:

GM Onischuk - IM Schneider 1-0
I think Onischuk will be pressing pretty hard to win this game against a less-experienced opponent knowing that there are quite a few people in hot pursuit of him. Onischuk does have white so he will probably aiming for a position where he can play for a win with little risk. The last two times these two players met it was a draw which I think just gives Onischuk that much more reason to try to prove something with a win.

GM Gurevich - GM Akobian 1/2-1/2
Both of these players have been doing well, but I expect a solid game where neither will have particularly great chances to win.

GM Stripunsky - GM Ibragimov 0-1
This will probably be some kind of KIA French where I expect Ibragimov will get a good chance to show his class. Ibragimov's preparation actually looks pretty good and his only loss was just a blunder which I don't think has reflected his overall form.

Group B:
GM Shulman - GM Kaidanov 1-0
Shulman is playing down 1.5 points in terms of tournament score which indicates to me that especially with white he will be in very good shape to try to win and maintain his lead. This is especially important due to the format of the tournament where he may wish to be able to take a draw in the later rounds to conserve his energy for a potential playoff.

GM Kamsky - GM Novikov 1/2-1/2
Kamsky has been playing peacefully since the first round except in the game where he has been playing 400 points down so I don't see why that trend should stop here. It's not impossible that he start to try to find more winning chances, but even a draw here will almost guarantee a game against Shulman next round which is really the game he needs to win to have a shot.

GM Gulko - GM Christiansen 1/2-1/2
If there were days off every three days this is where it would land so I expect some players to take a day off anyways. I expect a draw right around 30 moves as Christiansen has looked very solid so far anyways.

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