!!!

http://www.uschess.org/msa/MbrDtlTnmtHst.php?12880989
!!!

Shhhh

Shhh, quiet please.

US Division Championships

I'm very sad after watching the collapse last Wednesday by San Francisco. I really enjoyed watching them all season sad it had to end this way. I will say that they almost had possibly a worse collapse last year against New York in the playoffs. At some point it looked like they were destroying new york and then they had to win in the tiebreak after some missed opportunities to put it away there too.

Who's going to win this week?
Who cares? Oh, I guess I still do, a lot of exciting chess left.
Boston over NY 2-2
Dallas over Miami 3-1

Nuff said.

US Chess League: Playoffs wildcard

Playoffs!!!!!! Well, I didn't even realize there would be predictions into the playoffs and thanks to my opponents picking opposite sides of the bets I believe I'm now officially theoretically eliminated from winning (Not really that big of a deal, I'll be back next year better than ever).

However this week we have some serious excitement in the form of first round madness.

Philadelphia Inventors vs New York Knights
Nakamura has greatly underperformed in the league, but just came off of 2 amazing results in Europe, which Hikaru will we see this week in the league? Whichever one we do see will likely have a huge impact on this match. Edge to Nakamura.
Krush-Smith didn't turn out too pretty a few weeks ago, but I don't see that game repeating itself so I give Krush a slight edge with white.
Costigan-Bonin two players who have been performing well this year, I think I slightly prefer Bonin who has found some impressive ways to score so far this year.
Zenyuk - Wilson, Wilson got the wrong end of this one last time, but I think he still looks to have a slight edge here this week.
2-2 tie (Phi advances)

Miami Sharks vs San Francisco Mechanics
The most important match of the week (of course) pitting the defending champs against the team that eliminated them from the playoffs 2 years ago.
Becerra - Wolff: Wolff I think is greatly underestimated in this game, he's rusty, but really hasn't show bad form, the game against Christiansen was a tough fight I give Becerra a slight edge in this match.
Bhat - Lugo should be good for Bhat, I don't even think he has a draw with white so far in the league and Lugo can get in some trouble sometimes with some superficial ideas which Bhat can be particularly good at punishing.
Martinez- Zilberstein
Supposedly Martinez has the better score, but I think Zilberstein's shown quite a bit of maturity in his games these past 2 seasons I pick Zilberstein.
Young-Barredo Young had one big collapse this year, I think if he learned from that game he'll be a much stronger player. I like Young with the white pieces.
SF ove Mia 3-1

USCL Week 10 Predictions

I actually gained nominal ground next week, this week will likely not be as good. I'm busy tonight so only very quick predictions.

Boston over Phi 3-1
Strong line-up for Bos and riding the sox winning the series should be good for them.

Queens over Bal 2.5-1.5

NJ over NY 3-1
Mackenzie should be key.

Carolina ties Ten 2-2
What do you do when you're finally not the underdog?

SF over Dal 3-1
Because I'm a pro-SF prediction hack.

Sea over Mia 2.5-1.5
Bringing out Lee should turn out to be a clutch move.

USCL Rest of Week 9

Already 1/1 this week, feels good, hasn't happened to me too often. Now on for the rest, I have to try to gain some ground just to finish with a respectable score in the league.

Philadelphia Investors vs New York Knights
I think this is Lapshun's debut in the league, I don't know too much about him other than a good story from my friend Eugene Yanayt who before playing in his first New York Masters had nightsweats fearing 1.b4 from Lapshun. I think NY has a slight edge net from the top 3 boards and Philly a slight edge on the Bottom. I think I like NY a little more overall.
NY over Phi 2.5-1.5

New Jersey - Baltimore
A lot of really close games in this match, but I think I like NJ on board 1 just a little better and don't have anything great to say elsewhere, that said, NJ has underperformed quite a few times.
NJ ties Bal 2-2

Queens Pioneers - Boston Blitz
Big guns lineup for the blitz, a strong squad. The key here is that Krasik will have to be much quieter when the rest of his team plays if he loses so he'll manage not to.
Bos over Queens 3-1

Carolina Cobras - Miami sharks
With Miami bringing out a weakened lineup this weak I don't think they stand much of a chance against a Carolina team needing to make a strong push to a shot at a playoff spot If Carolina can with 4-0 they'd actually be ahead on tiebreaks form what I quickly read on the league site, this seems like an absurd prediction, but remember Miami was the team to originally end Tennessee's no-win streak last season when bringing a weak lineup in week 9.
Car over Mia 4-0

Tennessee Tempo - Dallas Destiny
Dallas knows not to relax when the season is coming down the final stretch, bringing out a talented lineup to take on the tough tempi(is that right?). I think tennessee will hold tough, but number one rule for the Tempo, 3-1, 2.5-1.5, it's all a loss, they keep pushing.
Dal over Tenn 3-1

USCL Monday Night Week 9

San Francisco Mechanics vs Seattle Sluggers
This has become a good rivalry in the league, especially on board 1. White has won all 4 encounters between Serper and Friedel and it looks like there's a good chance for it to happen again especially with Friedel's results with white (despite his claim otherwise).
Board 2 also looks good with Bhat at the helm and his tremendous record, I don't want to oversell him, but I will say what's really helped him this season is tough fighting always looking for strong ways to defend and continue fighting for points in tough positions.
Board 3 features Donaldson the other SF MVP candidate (I'm speaking in terms of the league MVP, every player is valuable to the Mechanics) I think his chances with white are quite good.
Board 4 is the rematch of Naroditsky and Sinanan, even though Sinanan has a fantastic first name and got the better of it last time I think this match will be very even and Naroditsky has been playing well looking at recent results (and now even holds the higher rating).
I know it's sounded like my predicitions have been one-sided for SF, and well things actually look good for the Mechanics.
SF over Sea 3-1

USCL Week 8 Predictions

First, I would like to explain what makes a good prediction. Sometimes predictions have to be a little controversial and what's more controversial that just being wrong? I certainly can't think of anything so I'm glad you all agree.

New Jersey vs Boston
Boston should be the favorite, but somebody didn't tell New Jersey that, both teams stacking the top of their lineups. If Boston wins on 1+2 I will likely look foolish, but I'm going to predict a tie here, looks like there are too many close games that have a good chance of being decisive.
NJ ties Bos

Baltimore vs Philadelphia
Another match that looks evenish down the line, I particularly like Philly's bottom 2 boards in this match (yes, more than I like Boston's bottom 2 in their match) and since my Diamondbacks failed where the 2004 Redsox succeeded (coming back from a 3-0 defecit) I have not grief over this either.
Phi over Bal 3-1

Miami - Tennessee
If Miami can beat San Francisco, they can beat anybody (even if they haven't), but by how much, but they've got a pretty nice situation board by board here.
Mia over Ten 3-1

Carolina Cobras vs San Francisco Mechanics
Bhat takes board 1 to get revenge for Friedel. The key for SF is going to be boards 2 and 3 where Carolina puts up some traditionally strong performers. Looks good for them though.
SF over Car 3-1

Dallas vs Seattle
Seattle seems to really like it when I pick them to lose, mostly by ripping on me whenever I do. Take this seattle.
Dal over Sea 2.5-1.5

Week 8: Monday Prediction

Surely by now this season some of you have come to notice my impressive prediction ability this season capped last week by my 0-6 record. I will not defend my actions, in fact I place the blame on myself. Last season I was a regular watcher of the league and while I accept the high likelyhood that I was merely lucky, I did it with authority. This year I can't claim any authority, I don't watch San Francisco play live every week (sadly) and in fact quite often I don't get home until after the days' games are over. I certainly don't have time to replay them and my chess and predictions have both suffered from this overworking (the latter of course being of much greater importance). Either way, I encourage you take these predictions with an extra grain of salt.

New York Knights vs Queens Pioneers
Some fairly close matchups down the boards, I think it is again the anticipation of the league to see if Nakamura can notch his first USCL win, I think it's becoming quite a burden on him, it's difficult to imagine he would struggle this badly. I do remember a poor start to the 2006 US Championships after going into the event as the defending champion, but he did come back in a fierce rally to almost tie for first in his division (on which I believe he would have lost on tiebreaks). Maybe that's his plan here, he probably has to start soon or never. I think it'll be soon. On other boards it's hard for me to make strong statements, I can say that the Queens do have 2/3 whites on these boards where the edges are unclear. Overall I think the knights have a small edge.
NY over Queens 2.5-1.5

Rest of Week 7 Predictions

Boston - New York
Boston taking some time off celebrating their large lead? No, I don't think that's it. I think this is going to come down to Naka taking some time on his clock to make some critical decisions, so far the internet forum hasn't proved to be the place for him so I think I still like Boston here. (That and last season I picked them almost every week and did well, I gotta mix something up).
Bos over NY 2.5-1.5

Baltimore Kingfishers - Queens Pioneers
Baltimore brings out the big guns trying to close the gap on Boston, this won't be the week, but I like the effort.
Bal over Queens 3-1

...... here is where my internet died last night, only have time for some quick predicitons, sorry:

Carolina vs Tennessee
Tennessee brings out their strongest lineup ever, there should be chances for all 3 match results, but I think Carolina is still slightly favored.
Car over Tenn 2.5-1.5

SF vs Miami I like SF on boards 1,2,3 closer on board 4, having played both board 4s I'll say that they're both tough, but probably Miami has a slight edge here.
SF over Mia 2.5-1.5

Seattle vs Dallas
Seattle faces their kryptonite, it's really very close, but I think I have to give the edge to Dallas.
Dal over Sea 2.5-1.5

USCL Monday Night Week 7

Monday Night Prediction:
Philadelphia Masterminds vs New Jersey Knockouts
Philadelphia leads out not quite with their traditional lineup but one that should be strong I would look for very close fights on boards 1-3 with maybe a slight net edge for New Jersey and then and edge for Philadelphia on Board 4, I predict a tie.
Phi TIES NJ 2-2

USCL Week 6 Predictions

I think finally I had a week that was worthwhile in predictions but still not up to the standards I've started to expect for myself. Anyways, SF plays Boston this week so obviously there's a lot to talk about.

New Jersey Knockouts vs Carolina Cobras
New Jersey is coming out this week with their full-metal lineup it looks like, fresh off their first win they're looking to keep the trend going.
Benjamin - Milman: New Jersey should have an edge on this board, Benjamin has looked good this season Milman struggled a little bit against GM opposition.
Schroer - Ippolito
I would say the biggest risk for NJ here is that Ippolito tries a little too hard avoiding his more solid opening choices and ends up getting stuck somewhere unfamiliar. However, I think NJ should have a slight edge here.
Friedman-Zaikov
Zaikov has struggled a little more this season than last, but I think he's still looking to preform well, this should be an even match.
Jones- Lian
I like Jones in this matchup, I don't expect him to lose to another kid so soon and his rating advantage here is much more significant.
New Jersey over Carolina 2.5-1.5

Miami Sharks vs Queens Pioneers
Becerra -Stripunksy is a very strong encounter, I expect Becerra to have the edge as he can be very tough with the white pieces.
Vovsha -Martinez I like Vovsha a little bit better with white, slight edge for Queens.
Moreno Roman -Zhao Definitely a clear edge for Miami here.
Bierkens - Socorregut
Slight edge to Queens here, but I think draw is more likely.
Miami's edges seem better than Queens
Mia over Queens 2.5-1.5

Dallas Destiny vs Philadelphia Inventors
Boskovic - Kudrin
Looks pretty even, no edge to either.
Smith - Kuljasevic Slight edge for Smith, but all 3 results possible in a relatively even matchup.
Stopa - Costigan Costigan should be solid, but Stopa is strong enough he should have a substantial edge.
Wilson - Zorigt: Edge to Wilson with the white pieces.
Dal TIES Phi 2-2

Baltimore Kingfishers vs Tennessee Tempo
Enkbhat - Burnett: A close matchup, I won't give either player an edge.
Andrews- Kaufman : Edge to Kaufman as Andrews feels the (justified) burden to overextend himself to try to score a point for a team where he is probably the best chance to score at the top.
Rohonyan - Wheeler Wheeler has struggled a bit lately giving his opponents extra chances to try to win, I like Rohonyan's chances.
Larsen - Battsetseg Slight edge for Batsettseg.
Bal over Tenn 3-1

Boston Blitz vs San Francisco Mechanics
This is definitely a highlight of the season for me. The match between the East and West's best regular season records from last season.
Christainsen - Wolff
Wolff has looked fine in his 2 performances so far and I imagine will continue to rebuild his form, that being said Christiansen has white and is no fish, I think Christiansen has a slight edge.
Bhat - Kelleher
Until I see otherwise I'm not going to predict anything for Bhat other than a strong result, Bhat gets the edge.
Shmelov - Donaldson
Edge to Donaldson even with the black pieces.
Young- Williams
Williams is probably slightly stronger, but Young is a tough opponent and has the white pieces (I've suffered a few times myself on this end of this tough opponent), probably very slight edge for Young.
SF over Bos 2.5-1.5

New York Knights vs Seattle Sluggers
Nakamura - Serper
My guess is Nakamura will go right into Serper's favorite sicilian. It fits his style well and Serper likes to get himself in time trouble, should be good for Nakamura if he can begin to concentrate a little better in some of the more critical moments of his games in the league.
Orlov - Krush
Orlov has white and is a particularly tough opponent he should have the edge with white.
Bonin - Readey
Bonin has been playing well so it's temping to give him my vote for this one, but... Nevermind I will.
Sinanan - Zenyuk
This should be close, I think it should slightly favor Sinanan, but should be relatively even.
NY over Sea 2.5-1.5

Rest of Week 5 predictions

What has happened to me? My luck coming to an end? Tired work weeks impairing my prediction judgement? Mechanics not the 4-0 I've predicted? Whatever it is, it must come to an end.


New Jersey Knockouts vs New York Knights
Benjamin-Charbonneau
Charbonneau definitely has some advantage in youth and activity, but I will not sell Benjamin short, he should have the edge with white.
Hess-Zlotnikov
Hess has a lot of talent, can at times be inconsistent, but youth and rating give him the edge.
Molner-Arnold
A battle of youth on board 3, I don't know too much about either of them, but I know I've seen some impressive games from Arnold that give me confidence to give him the nod with black.
Zenyuk- Ju, should be close probably a slight edge for Ju, but not much.
Close, better chances for NY who still seems to have some fire left.
NY over NJ 2.5-1.5

Boston Blitz vs Baltimore Kingfishers
Christiansen - Blehm should favor LarryC, he lost last time, but not before developing a strong position with black.
Enkbhat - Sammour-Hasbun : Hasbun defended well in 2 games, Enkbhat probably won't try to take of off the board so drastically, but either way I like his chances.
Martiorsov - Rohonyan Should be pretty even, 3 results possible and decisive likely, but still even.
Battsetseg - Krasik : Krasik seems to have trouble in games like these, honestly don't like his chances much as he can get a little overconfident. That being said, he can play and his chances can't be so bad.
Boston over Baltimore 2.5-1.5

Queens Pioneers vs Philadelphia Inventors
Stripunksy-Kudrin Stripunksy has been playing very well in the last year while Kudrin is probably past his prime form edge to Stripunsky.
Smith-Vovsha: Both players who show good classical knowledge and aggressive style should be a balanced game.
Critelli - Costigan: Costigan has a strong lineup in front of him this week and doesn't need the same kind of opportunities, he's performed well in the league and I give him a slight edge.
Wilson-Thaler: I'm a fan of wilson's play in the league, what can I say, I give him the edge.
Phi over Queens 2.5-1.5

Tennessee Tempo vs San Francisco Mechanics
Burnett - Wolff: The question for this game is if Wolff can find good form. He didn't look bad in his first game so I give him the edge.
Donaldson - Andrews
John looked very good last week, solid, not afraid to take some chances and showed a good nose for blood, he can be quite poisonous with white especially against a relatively inexperienced opponent.
Wheeler-Shankland
Shankland can be really tough, is vulnerable, but he's been playing well and I give him the edge.
Naroditsky - Wu
Naroditsky lost in an unfortunate manner last week but I think his mistake was going away from his normal style, no need for him to try to play unfamiliar positions this week for him so I give him the edge.
Tennessee has made some things close this year, but I think SF is in a good position to try to regain some ground
SF over Tenn 3.5-0.5

Carolina Cobras vs Seattle Sluggers
Milman - Serper
Serper is tougher with white than with black where his predictable repetoire can make him vulnerable, I like Milman here.
Mikhailuk - Schroer
Mikhailuk has been more active (I might be wrong) I believe and the rating difference is not so big so with with white I think he's preferred.
Zaikov - Schmidt
I think this game should be a close one, Zaikov was quite strong last year, he's had some tough games against some tough opponents this year.
Michael Lee- Craig Jones:
Lee was quite solid last year for Seattle, Jones can also be quite good, but especially with white I like to favor youth.
Slight edge for Seattle.
Sea over Car 2.5-1.5

Maybe you're safer predicting the exact opposite though.....

USCL Monday Prediction

Just realized I forgot to post a prediction for monday:
Dallas over Miami 2.5-1.5

USCL Monday Night Week 4

In case I don't get time to make another aweful prediciton, I predict boston over NY 3-1.

Update:
So I'm sure some of you out there might be shocked by my bold prediction. Well the key is take whatever you expect Boston to do and add at least 1 point to it. Sure, board by board it doesn't look too impressive for Boston. Nakamura should have an edge on board 1, Perelshteyn counters with an edge on board 2. Bonin on board 3 should be a bit better and Williams on board 4 should have the edge. Looks like the perfect line for a 2-2 tie, but you have to remember that Boston has the team factor, I really think this is what drove both them and San Francisco to such strong results in the regular season last year. I have been overlooking this so far this season. So really this just gives Boston much better chances of holding/ winning on boards where they should be worse.

Queens vs NJ
A rematch of the week 1 tie. A few changes for both teams and a color flip. This time I can more confidently predict something at least slightly offbeat by Stripunsky against Benjamin. Board 1 is pretty close Board 2 should favor the Queens, but boards 3 and 4 I like NJ so I give NJ the slight edge in the match.
NJ over Queens 2.5-1.5

Phi vs Bal
Philadelphia is missing Kudrin this week and Baltimore debuts their top GM. Baltimore should have an edge on board 1, I trust Costigan to keep it close on board 2 but ultimately he should be on the worse side of thigns, but Philly looks good on boards 3/4 which should give them good chances to hold the match.
Phi TIES Bal 2-2

Tennessee Tempo vs Miami Sharks
If you remember, Tennessee scored their only historical team win against Miami at the end of last season, this week however Miami is showcasing a tougher line-up. Miami has a substantial edge on boards 1 and 4 and less so on boards 2/3, but still very promising. I predict a 3.5-0.5 victory for Miami.
Mia over Ten 3.5- 0.5

Dallas Destiny vs Carolina Cobras
This looks very close on Paper, Carolina has been playing with a large core of its original members from season to season. This experience in making good team judgments should help them.
Car over Dal 2.5-1.5

Seattle Sluggers vs San Francisco Mechanics
Obviously the most important match of the week (since it involved the Mechanics). It features one of the most exciting matchups of last season in Serper-Friedel. These 2 played 3 matches last season. This produced 2 games of the week and 3 decisive results. Friedel got quite a bad position in his one game as black, however it was shown here:
http://chessquest.blogspot.com/2006/10/mechanics-clinch.html
that Serper did slip up at one point. I think over the last year watching Friedel's games he's become a much tougher defender and I expect this to be a pretty balanced game with my bias going towards Friedel.
On board 2 we have Orlov-Pruess. Last season Orlov got his taste of Bhat, this time around he's looking at Pruess who has had a somewhat disappointing couple of weeks, he seems to do better when he's playing stronger opponents though so this should be a good chance to turn that around with the white pieces.
Board 3 there is an interesting match Readey-Donaldson. Donaldson was a long-time resident of Seattle and I'm guessing has had quite a bit of experience with Readey. My guess is his stronger level of play and experience against this specific opponent should make things quite difficult for Readey.
Board 4 features Daniel "kid" Naroditsky against Seattle's young player Sinanan. Naroditsky has white against a lower rated player so this looks quite good for him.
This week looks quite promising for SF.
SF over Sea 3-1

Rest of USCL Week 3 Predictions

Miami Sharks vs. Carolina Cobras
Should be an interesting board 1 matchup, Becerra an established GM against Milman a strong talent of american chess. Slight edge to Becerra with white.
Board 2 features Schroer vs Lugo with Schroer still trying to score his first point in the league while lugo has been solid, I feel like I need to give Lugo the nod.
Board 3 is Martinez-Zaikov. One of the tougher opponents Zaikov has faced, then again, it doesn't seem to matter that much for him, I give Zaikov the nod.
On board 4 Jones-Maderos Jones gets the nod over the relatively unproven Maderos with the lower rating.
Looks pretty even, roughly equal chances for each side to break through.
Mia TIE Car 2-2

Queens Pioneers vs Dallas Destiny
Board 1: Stripunsky - Broskovic
Stripunsky has rating, experience in the format and the white pieces, looks good for him.
Board 2: Vovsha - Kuljasevic
Should be pretty close, but Vovsha looked very sharp in his first match in the league season so I'm giving him the nod.
Board 3: Stopa- Zhao
Stopa has a substantial rating edge and the white pieces, I'm picking him to take the board with a steady edge.
Board 4: Zorigt-Thaler
Zorigt looked a little shaky in her league debut, but nothing that can't be overcome with a second shot, she's got the rating edge and the white pieces.
Again close, but I think the boards 3 and 4 edge for Dallas seems more substantial than Jersey's higher board edge, I give Dallas the nod.
Dal over NJ 2.5-1.5

Seattle Sluggers vs Tennessee Tempo
The famous week 1 matchup from last year which had the leagues first ever 4-0 sweep. However, Tennessee has looked a lot stronger this year and I wouldn't expect such a route.
Board 1: Tangborn-Burnett
Tangborn might have what it takes to contain Burnett's active style and has looked solid when he holds the white pieces. I'm going to give him the nod.
Board 2: Andrews -Schmidt
Schmidt didn't impress me particularly in week 1, feel free to prove me wrong but Andrews hasn't looked too bad in spite of his 0.5-1.5 record.
Board 3/4: Seattle has loaded up the bottom of their lineup with a fairly balanced team, looks like they're giving themselves good chances on both of these, clearly favored on both boards.
Sea over Ten 3-1

USCL Week 3 Predictions

I haven't done well so far with my predictions, but I blame a vast conspiracy against me by over/underperformers in the league being unpredictable.... so far.

San Francisco Mechanics vs New York Knights
Even though this pits a 1.5-0.5 team against an 0-2 team this is probably the week's most exciting match-up.
Board 1: Bhat (SF) - Nakamura (NY)
An interesting matchup. Bhat has been hot lately in all of his chess and has had amazing results in the league. Nakamura has a solid 200 point rating advantage. However Bhat is a Mechanic which gives him that something extra (oh yea, my biased prediction). I'd say given the white pieces and recent performances the chances are about equal.

Board 2: Krush (NY) vs McCambridge (SF)
Krush has had a slightly better performance in the league and has the white pieces, she should have a slight edge but McCambridge can be tricky and sometimes Krush can be overly predictable.

Board 3: Pruess (SF) vs Bonin (NY)
If you think Pruess is dangerous on board 3, wait until you see him the week after a loss. Edge to SF on board 3.

Board 4: Young (SF) - Herman (NY)
Their ratings are actually fairly comprable and Young has had some good results lately and I wouldn't underestimate the tough kid at all.
My prediction: SF wins 2.5-1.5

Philadelphia Masterminds vs Boston Blitz
Battle of the undefeated teams. Philadelphia has built on their experience without a true board one to form a tough team this year with a regular board 1. Boston continues to rally on the strong regular season they had last year.
Board 1: Kudrin(Phi) - Perelshteyn(Bos)
Kudring with the white pieces vs Perelshteyn with black, should be a pretty even matchup, slight edge to Kudrin with white.
Board 2: Sammour-Hasbun (Bos) - Smith(Phi)
Boston should have an edge here, but this is the board where I think Phi could potentially steal the match.
Board 3: I dont' know too much about these players, but Boston's board 3 has looked solid in his 2 games so far. Edge to Boston here.
Board 4: Elvin Wilson continues to perform well in the league so I think I need to give Philly the edge on board 4.
My prediction: 2-2 Tie

Baltimore Kingfishers vs New Jersey Knockouts
Board 1: Blehm is solid, but Benjamin should have a slight edge even with black.
Board 2: Ippolito didn't look so strong last week, but I don't expect a repeat performance, edge to NJ here as well.
Board 3: Rohonyan has played well so far this season but ran into a tough opponent in week 2, I expect this to continue. Edge to Baltimore.
Board 4: Edge goes to youth and rating on board 4 despite colors, edge to Baltimore.

It looks very even, but overal I think Baltimore has a much better chance of breaking through
Baltimore over NJ 2.5-1.5

Rest of Week 3 predictions coming soon.....

USCL Week 2 Predictions

So week one was a weak performance by me, also it seems the scoring system has been changed a little, but I'm not going to complain as I think in general it's a better system.

Boston Blitz vs Queens Pioneers
Board 1: GM Christiansen vs GM Ibragimov
This is definitely the power-match of the week, an important board for boston too, if Christiansen can get a half point or a full poin it should be good enough to put the blitz in good position, he probably has a very slight edge too over Ibragimov. Ibragimov is obviously more active as a player, but Christiansen can be a beast with the white pieces.
Board 2: This should be a little closer than it looks on paper, Kleiman can definitely put together some high quality games and his preparation is generally good, but I think the edge goes to Sammour-Hasbun.
Board 3: I'm not really familiar with either of these players, but I think the edge goes to Queens.
Board 4: Krasik personally asked me to trash him a lot here (or maybe not), but either way I will say he's pretty inconsistent so basically are we seeing a Krasik that can play on Wednesday or normal Krasik? I'll give it a 50/50 and call this board a wash.
Boston over Queens 2.5-1.5

Carolina Cobras vs Baltimore Kingfishers
Board 1: Clear edge to Milman, very talented player, also higher rated and has the white pieces.
Board 2: Schroeor's back for Carolina vs Kaufman of Baltimore. Kaufman seems to play a little more so an edge for him especially with white.
Board 3: "You can't stop Zaikov, you can only hope to contain him." Rohonyan impressed me with her smooth win last week, but Zaikov has been a beast in the USCL and I expect this to continue.
Board 4: This is a pretty close match, but I think I need to give the edge to Jones due to Zimmers poor performance so far in the league.
Carolina over Baltimore 3-1

New York Knights vs Philadelphia Inventors
Board 1: Charbonneau seems to do better in situations where he's not such a huge favorite. That being said, what happens when two dragoneers face off? My guess is white doesn't play 1.e4, but then what does he play? Either way I give a very slight edge to Charbonneau.
Board 2: Krush had a frustrating loss last week and is sure to be looking for revenge. Smith so far has had rather poor results in the league, then again he's spent most of his time fighting off board 1 with Ehlvest gone in Europe most of last season. I give him the edge on board 2
Board 3: Hess has clear edge, next.
Board 4: Herman can be tough, but Wilson has had strong results in the league so i'll give him the edge here.
New York Knights tie Philadelphia 2-2

Tennessee Tempo vs New Jersey Knockouts
Edge to Jersey on boards 1,3,4 (although slighter on board 1). I'll pick Jersey to win 3.5-0.5 (corrected)


Dallas vs SF
The matchup everybody's been waiting for (or at least I have).
Board 1: I have no idea what kind of form Wolff's in, but knowing Donaldson he'll make sure Wolff's ready to play at least. Wolff was also former us champion so I think he gets the go ahead here.
Board 2: Bhat gets white on board 2 he also holds the league's highest performance rating to date. That said Bartholemew is no slump, but I think Bhat should have the edge here.
Board 3: Last year Pruess couldn't quite break through Stopa's sveshnikov, but sometimes the white pieces come with this burden. I think slight edge goes to Pruess.
Board 4: A battle of the young guns, unfortunately for Dallas Young is Younger... Okay enough horrible jokes, This should be a close fight, but Young doesn't have the burden of being a full time college student (I assume Zorigt is).
SF over dallas 3-1

Miami Sharks vs Seattle Sluggers
Board 1: Edge to Becerra with the white pieces who has performed pretty well in the league.
Board 2: Slight edge to Tangborn on board 2 where the white pieces and a solid playing style should let him play without too much risk. (Key board!)
Board 3: Edge to Mikhailuk who has performed well in the league and significantly outrates his opponent.
Board 4: Edge to Miami here with the substantially higher rated player.
Miami TIES Seattle 2-2

Rest of Week 1 Predictions

I'm eagerly anticipating the start of the season, here are my thoughts on the week 1 matches:

Baltimore vs NY Knights:
NY is bringing out a tough line-up with punch top to bottom, Clear edges for NY on boards 1 and 4, slight edge on board 2 for NY and a reasonably close match on board 3 I'll slate NY to take this one handily. An important part of NY's results this season will be their results on the bottom 2 boards. Part of the benefit/problem with having talented youth on board 4 is the inconsistency of youth. Arnold could beat a strong IM one weak and look like a weak master the next. I'm sure he'll gain a steady footing as his chess improves, but it's difficult to hold strong results from week to week sometimes. If he can stay strong, the Knights will win their fair share of matches this season.
NY over Bal 3-1

Philadelphia vs Miami
Philly fans have something to really be excited about this year, they have a team that could be a legitimate contender. If Kudrin can hold fort on the tough board 1 for them the rest of their lineup is capable of some legitimate results. Miami had trouble keeping things together last season and fell apart towards then end. This match looks fairly even top to bottom I think Philadelphia has the white pieces on the boards where it'll matter a little more, I give them the slight edge as they've always been a legitimate team when they've had a real board 1 playign for them.
Phi over Miami 2.5-1.5

Dallas vs Tennessee
Tennessee really isn't as bad a team as their results suggest on paper. Philadelphia will certainly want to destroy them if they get a chance to this season as an impossible loss was to blame for Philadelphia being left out of the playoffs last year. Dallas again has their united nations team going for them but it's a strong united nations team. Tennessee isn't more than 150 points lower on any board and they even have a slight edge on board 4 on paper. I think it'll be a clean victory for Dallas, but that they'll get dinged somewhere for a point.
Dallas over Ten 3-1

San Francisco vs Carolina
The SF squad this year is quite ridiculous. At least 5 of the 8 players on the team have 2 GM norms or more if I'm not mistaken (and I don't know what exactly McCambridge's status is there), that gives them quite a bit of punch all the way down to board 3. Then on board 4 there'll be time shared between a duo of talented youngsters in the country. It wouldn't be impossible to have 4 GM titles on this team by the end of the season or more. Carolina is putting together a similar squad to last year led by the strong and also almost-GM Lev Milman. Josh Friedel vs Lev Milman puts two of the soon-to-be-GM club in a head to head battle to lead off the season. Edge goes to Friedel here with white, but I know this faceoff has some blood behind it. Boards 2 and 3 have a clear edge to the Mechanics and board 4 is fairly even so the Mechanics can be fairly confident going into this contest.
SF over Car 3.5-0.5

Seattle vs Boston
Missing Orlov on board 2 from their lineup in week one will make things difficult for seattle who boasted an impressive regular season record last year before falling to the eventual USCL champions. Boston had a great regular season run last year as well but is also lacking some of the punch they usually bring week to week with Perelshteyn missing on board 2. Either way this should be a tough match. I think it's pretty close on all boards, maybe a slight edge to seattle on board 3 and a slight edge to boston on board 1, overall I think there will be a pair of decisive games each way and a pair of draws to even it out.
Sea TIEs Bos 2-2

US Chess League: Deserving of a post!

What? Me posting? It's almost as if I dont' even play chess anymore. Another season, a different city for me to watch from and about 1/4 the free time I used to have. This season looks to be exciting, more top players getting involved, more promising youth involved, and lineups juiced more than a certain bay-area slugger.

I wish I was ready for some serious week 1 predictions, but it doesn't seem all the lineups are ready yet. But we have a week one match between two expansion teams that should bring some serious excitement to the league. You would think that the new addition of two new tri-city teams would thin out the talent pool in the league, but if anything it seems to have made it deeper and brought out GMs from their hiding places. The very first match of the season features two GMs on board one, not something that has been too common in past seasons. Anyways, here are the lineups:

New Jersey Knockouts Queens Pioneers
GM Joel Benjamin: 2653 GM Alex Stripunsky: 2626
FM Thomas Bartell: 2386 IM Eli Vovsha: 2501
NM Mackenzie Molner: 2355 FM Teddy Coleman: 2285
NM Evan Ju: 2268 WFM Julia Shiber: 2108


Board 1: I'm familiar with both these players, not too familiar with their individual games. I do remember a few nice games by both of them from the 2005 US championship. I also know I've seen both players play 1.e4 and try a few things BESIDES the open sicilian. I think there's a good chance of seeing something like taht in this matchup. Slight edge to Benjamin who I think is probably the slightly stronger player and has white.

Board 2: I'm not familiar with Vovsha at all, seen Bartell play a few nice games, this one is probably a little closer than it looks on paper, but I think the slight edge goes Vovsha who will have the white pieces this should be one of the most important boards for this match.

Board 3: Molner - Coleman
Molner is a former New York Knight. Coleman and he are both young players, Molner seems to be the stronger player but has had problems in some matches last season. Still I think Molner gets the nod on board 3, especially if NJ wants a real edge.

Board 4: Shiber-Ju
I think even with black slight edge to Ju, he seems to have more experience and his youth suggests he's underrated. Board 4 belongs to the kids this year as it has a few times this year.

Overall should be a good start the season.
My prediction: NJ wins 3-1 over Queens

Southern California here I come....

I figured I'd update here. I have sad and happy news to report. I'm moving back down to Southern California for a new job. I would like to thank the chess community I've encountered up here, I've greatly enjoyed it. I will still be rooting for the SF Mechanics next year so they better win again... I hope I see all the great people I've met around at tournaments and other than that I wish you all the best.

Amateur Team West 07

US Amateur Team West

What happened to Caltech this year? Caltech had been a perennial contender (winning 3 of the last 4 and going into the last round in clear first in the other one), but this year we were missing out top board Patrick Hummel which convinced us to name ourselves "No Patrick, No Problem".
Last year we were good and lucky enough to win the event clear, this year we were much weaker (2020 vs 2197) and our last year's 2nd and 4th boards (Yanayt and I) were playing 1st and 2nd boards respectively this year. We had a rough start with Yanayt blundering from a completley won position in round 1 to tie a match we should've probably won despite this result. In round 3 we played the famous Hoo's the Next American Idol and despite being outrated on 3/4 boards only lost 1.5-2.5 and actually our board 3 was better the whole game and then played consecutive blunders throwing away the win on move 40 and losing the game outright on move 41, but such things happen in chess. We beat up some weaker team in round 4 and had a nice upset in round 5 fueled by our very consistant 4th board Mike Kaye's victory over a stronger player and myself on board 2 defeating a master as black (more on this below). In round 6 we were paired against a disappointed San Diego team whose top boards decided to call it an event and headed for the long drive home while their bottom two boards still wanted to play. We bravely allowed our lower boards to play the games to try to keep things as interesting as possible and they valiantly scored 1.5/2 to give us a very impressive result of 4.5/6 despite the early mis-steps. We tied for 4th overall and took 5th place on tiebreaks and 1st place U2100, I can say we can be happy with our early "Swiss Gambit". So sure, it wasn't first place, but this was the lowest rated Caltech team in the past 5 years and we still had a very solid result. Had it not been for some bad luck on our part we might have even been in contention.

My own results were kind of strange. In round 1 I was on the black side of a Slav and my opponent played one lazy move and then needed to accept an inferior position, but instead blundered allowing a nice tactic to win a piece and resigned before making his 16th move. In round 2 I was paired against another weaker opponent, this time as white. It was my first game against the Gruenfeld so I was slightly uncomfortable playing this very technical line I had prepared in general. My opponent played a few inaccurate moves and I was clearly better, but then he blundered allowing me to win a pawn and the bishop pair to which he apparantly decided he would rather be mated in one instead so I played 20. Qh7# (yes, I know you don't see the position) and again was the first one done on the team in under an hour. In round 3 I played the highest rated board 2 in the event in Joel Banawa who was sitting at a rating of 2380+. I missed my chance to generate serious counterplay, but may have still had chances to survive, but I blundered allowing him to win the exchange which I might have had some minimal compensation for if it werent for my followup trying to win the exchange back which I was lazy about calculating and missed (from far) that he had a nice tactic at the end of this line winning a piece and not losing the exchange back so I decided to resign instead of playing on down a whole rook. In round 4 I was paired down again, not quite so far this time and I got to play my first real game against the King's Indian, my opponent played a dubious (but common) variation and I gave a little lesson in ripping the queenside apart and not getting mated and I won fairly smoothly. In round 5 I was paired up to a 2278 as black. My opponent played the Exchange French which is a line that has definitely more poison than its reputation. If black plays lazily he can end up with problems developing his "free" french bishop. My opponent played a move that looked inaccurate in the opening and I found my chance to equalize completely. I realized from looking at the boards that I would probably need to win to give my team a real chance so I wanted to keep my chances high. I was quite proud of the move I found in the following position:

White just played 17. Qf5
(image generated from http://www.eddins.net/steve/chess/chessimager)

I was black in this position against an opponent more than 150 points higher rated than me. I had forseen this position and felt I should be better, but I realized I was a little loose and if I wasn't careful my better minor pieces could become less of a factor than my loose queenside. However, I had prepared a shot in this position which I will post the result at the bottom of this post, so don't scroll down if you want to try to find the strongest move in the position on your own. By the way, this move only achieves a positional goal and clarifies the position, it does not win material or give some overwhelming advantage. I would say after this move the position is clearly =+.

Anyways, I went on to win this game (although even after the diagram my opponent had reasonable drawing chances) which had a nice finish for me as the game simplified to KNNB v K which I could have won faster, but decided to enjoy myself by winning with just KNB v K ignoring my other knight. In the last round I chose not to play a game (otherwise someone else on my team wouldn't have gotten a game) and decided to give the games to the teammates who would get the most interesting games. And our 3rd and 4th boards stepped up as I mentioned to net us the U2100 prize on tiebreaks.

My goals:
Well, I guess I had some miscalculations in game 3 which wasn't great, but it was a tough game and I can't be totally disappointed with it. I am not holding myself to a standard of never missing anything in my calculations as my current goal is still to break 2200 and I'm not insisting to be perfect as that would be unreasonable. I spotted some nice tactics in a few of my games and don't feel like I missed out on major opportunities for the most part due to lazy calculation.

Rating change: 2132 -> 2144 (2 points from my all-time high!)










Solution to diagram: 17... Qc8! White cannot play 18. Qxf6 because Be7 traps the queen so the white queen is excavated (he traded it off on c8).

TNM: Round 5

I think I need to learn to be more vindictive at the chessboard. Not necessarily to my opponents, but to his moves. I think I definitely let my opponent off the hook for a couple of strange looking moves which just yielded an endgame which was probably superficially better for me, but should have been drawn. This is actually how I beat him last time as well. This time we went into a pawn endgame that should have been a draw, but offered me better chances (kind of a strange thing to say about a pawn endgame). Sure enough he didn't find the most accurate moves (although I will admit the only defense I've found is kind of ugly-looking) and he lost the game.

I'm a little upset with myself lately, I haven't been studying chess as much as I should, but I've been a little preoccupied with my social life, strange to say that as a chess player. This game kind of made me think of something interesting. In many chess positions we play, we have no sense absolutely as to whether the position is a win or a draw, but we can normally quantify some kind of "advantage", when is it okay to go into a position we know objectively is a draw, but will very often be a win in practice. For example the endgame K+R+B vs K + R is a theoretical draw, but given the opportunity to play this endgame from the attacking side or maintain some small, but definite advantage in an endgame I would probably choose to be the attacking side in K+R+B vs K + R as in practice the defender does very poorly. But then of course I would feel guilty that I simply ignored the "chess truth" in the position and instead took an overly practical point of view. I'm not sure where I'm going with this, but I think it's an interesting discussion. I guess the day some opening is worked out to a K+R+B vs K+R endgame we will see how much chess truth matters where we see if either 1, the white side avoids it or 2) the black side avoids it. Although I guess in a sense, neither side can be too happy. White didn't maintain a theoretical advantage and black gave a position where his losing chances are high and his winning chances are nil.

Tuesday Night Marathon: Round 4

This game wasn't a success by most measures. I gained some experience playing the white side of the Catalan. I'm still learning this opening and I carelessly played what looked like a natural move only to find that it was a true gambit of a pawn. I still had reasonable Catalan-like compensation, and I thought I managed to hold things together with a key exchange sacrifice that give one or two moves to consolidate (somehow I need to consolidate to be better, not the rook, it was strange) I would've had a nice position, but my opponent found some accurate moves to put the point away. Kind of sad, I missed a few opportunities in the middlegame, but I think I got a much better feel for the position which is necessary before I can really start analyzing it intelligently on my own.

Kind of a curious point here. It's very hard to simulate the ideas you get under game-pressure at home. I've tried, but the development isn't normal. Maybe I just need to work on the exercise a little more. I've been thinking about this a little. I guess part of the problem is it becomes a little trickier when if you miss an idea for one side you will likely miss it for both, but still it seems there should be some reasonable way of trying to do this type of exercise for an hour or so a couple of times a week. Find some middle-game position in an opening I play, try to put in serious time and do some solitaire chess. Afterwards take a quick look to see if any of my ideas had interesting merit, check them out and be done with it.

Tuesday Night Marathon: Status after round 3

I decided to give the Tuesday Night Marathon another go even after my heart-breaking finish in my last attempt. I am 2/2 as white so far which is slightly out of the ordinary for me lately, but these games were both playing down so we'll see how things go in future rounds. I'm 3/3 after 3 rounds overall, this tournament is one of the few FIDE-rated events in the bay area so I figured I should be playing in it with any attempt to get more rated games, starting next round I should get a crack at some of the stronger opponents, I just need to keep winning like I did last time so I can keep playing them. I would say my nicest game so far was a quick win in round 2 where my opponent played an inaccurate move order in the opening which I responded to with the best move and then my opponent overreached a little bit by playing moves which somewhat attempted to refute my opening which was a pretty good sign I would have resources to get a better position. I did, which he followed up by letting his queen get trapped so he had to sacrifice it for a rook and knight, but being behind in development and not having a reasonable place to castle he was doomed and resigned a few moves later. Round 1 I showed an amazing ability to miss the same idea multiple times as part of a tactical sequence to only amazingly see it later when it somehow still worked, I wasn't too proud of this performance, but hey, it got the job done.

Round 3:
This game I played okay, I think I missed some early opportunities to get a very large advantage, but I did manage to go into an endgame with a large positional edge and quickly won a pawn. After this I will admit I played somewhat inaccurately, but then something happened which isn't entirely new to me, my opponent, clearly being the defender and being a pawn down offered me a draw. Now, I will admit, I'm not 100% sure the position was winning at that point, but I'm positive it was not a trivial draw either. I've seen people do this and I think once you're above 1800 it's an absolutely rude and ridiculous thing to do, especially to a higher rated opponent. I even saw my good friend offer a draw to a grandmaster in a 4 vs 3 rook ending from the defending that may have been defensible from the defensible, although I have my doubts, but was certainly no clear draw. But I think any player above 1800 should at least follow this rule: if it is clear that your opponent is even nominally better and it's clear that you have 0 chances to win, do not offer a draw, it does not show your understanding of chess, what it does show is a lack of class. I especially love when these players then after the game tell you the position "was an obvious draw" after they go on and lose the game. I mean it is known that King + Bishop + Rook vs King + Rook is a draw, I expect 99.9% of players to make the defender play it out. It doesn't matter how trivial the drawing technique is by the way for an endgame, let the attacking side offer the draw, you show you understand what's happening on the board that way.

Western Class Championship Results

Western Class Championship Results

The tournament got a decent turnout, GMs Yermolinsky and Khachiyan both played along with IMs Sevillano, Matikoziyan, Pruess, Mezentsev, and Stein. I started out playing okay. I had an interesting game against Robby Adamson in my first game, I had a strong advantage, but made a couple of obviously bad decisions which allowed him to complicate the position with an unclear sacrifice that was much easier to play for him regardless of the true assessment. In my second game a strong expert from Arizona in what was a complicated positional struggle where an early decision to leave the king in the center was later a deciding factor after I defended for quite a while. In the third game I faced IM Mezentsev and I unfortunately walked into a little trap in the opening that left him (with the black pieces) with a better position and me with little active play, I tried to stir things up, but the position was already too bad and I lost in short order. In my 4th game I achieved a position with an extra pawn and a better position straight from the opening, but after one missed move and a couple of serious miscalculations I achieved a position where my opponent had a lot of counterplay despite being a pawn down, in this game I was particularly upset at the various missed tactics even though I saw some reasonably tricky ideas that were necessary to keep the game in control, but ultimately I was only able to draw. In the next game I was paired down and I made several bad decisions missing my chance to get the better of the position, but fortunately my opponent missed his opportunity to put me into serious danger and then in what was at best a slightly better position for me he actively blundered a piece to give me the game. This guy says he's a reader of my blog so I give him the utmost respect. In the last round I was paired agianst a slightly higher rated expert who I've played before, this game was flawed in many ways, I "tactically" won a pawn from the opening, but it turns out the tactic was flawed in a few fairly obvious ways that we both completely missed. After a few more moves I was essentially just a pawn up, but there were aggressive possibilities for both sides. I made a bad practical decision right before the time control (which I could have delayed until after the time control by repeating moves one more time) and then quickly blundered into mate. Overall I feel like I played well, unfortunately my struggles as white continued, it's arguable that I played my toughest opposition as white, but I got good positions in two of the games and then mishandled the positions completely so I think it's fair to say I need more practice both playing an analyzing these types of positions.


How I did at my goals?
Well, I didn't finish +1, in fact I finished -1, but I was within range. I was very good at spending 10-20 seconds on early moves making sure I didn't have two positions confused, thinking about what other options I had, I think this worked quite well as I felt like I didn't catch myself not thinking on any moves, now as to the quality of my thought that was a little lower than I was hoping for. I did miss a few of my opponents moves, but it was at least a rare occurrance. This doesn't sound like a complete success, but I am pretty satisfied and if I can continue this positive trend I will have good results in the future.

Western Class Championship

I'm going down to Agoura Hills, CA this weekend to play in the Western Class Championship. This year it's back to it's glory as a 7 round event (although I can't play tonight so I'll be taking a 1st round bye) after first being reduced to 6 rounds and then 5 rounds last year it's certainly a nice change of pace. Last time it was 7 rounds it got a very strong field, this year I doubt it will have as many strong players since the prize fund has since been reduced, but I imagine it will get the usual suspects from Southern California.

My goal for this tournament is to finish with a plus score, it won't be easy, but it shouldn't be impossible either. I guess in keeping with the spirit of my new year's resolution one of my other goals for the tournament is to reduce the number of moves where I spot critical variations only AFTER I move. So I guess wording it in an affirmative manner is make sure I'm actually calculating and not making superficial judgements. I know this may seem strange coming from a player of my rating, but I'm really not sure if I calculate more than like 2 or 3 moves deep in the deeper variations of my calculation except for when that is extended by forcing moves like checks, captures, or mate threats. I mean the latter part makes sense as those are the easiest variations to calculate. At the same time I don't want to start to become one of those players who spends ridiculous amounts of time on simple moves. Another goal for this tournament is to spend a little more time thinking in the opening. This doesn't mean I'm going to try to innovate significantly at the board, but I think spending 15-20 seconds at least on each move should help me get my wheels turning a little bit so I don't wake up in a middlegame position without having "warmed up". Should be nice to get a full 2 hours for the first 40 moves after my TNM game on Tuesday with only 90 minutes for the first 30 moves (believe me, although the ratio is the same it's a big difference).

Anyways, wish me luck.

2006 Review / Goals for 2007

2006 Review / Goals for 2007:

The year 2006 was a good year overall for me. Chess did not go as well as I had hoped. I figured I should reflect on my goals from last year, see where I hit and where I missed and make some new goals for 2007.

My goals last year were to:
1) Break 2200 USCF, preferably by the end of National Open
2) Reduce the frequency of offering/taking draws from superior positions.

Well on #1 I would say I failed, but I don't think I appreciated the difficulty I would face in trying to break this mark. So after the last tournament of 2005 (North American Open 2005) my rating was 2094 coming off of 2 strong results. This year started with some solid showings. I failed to show good form in a couple of rounds in last year's Western Class Championship, but then followed it with a strong 5.5/6 (4.5/5 played) at Amateur Team West to help my team win and with the 4th board prize. I followed that up with some reasonable results including a tournament I was quite happy with at Western Pacific Open where I think I showed some good chess, but had one game which I lost a totally dominating position due to missing the critical moment in the game. Probably due to a lack of confidence I had some bad results following that and lost most of my progress.

Then came my move to San Francisco which I started with a particularly lucky result to get a 4.5/5 in a g/45 tournament up here which was immediately followed with a heartbreaking Southern California state championships candidate tournament which went beautifully with a draw against my friends (as solid master) as black round 2 and a win over a strong expert in round 3 just to carelessly blunder a piece in round 4 and barely miss qualification. Again I saw a some mixed results in g/45 tournaments which doesn't particularly bother me so much as the results in such quick time controls can be somewhat random, but I had very bad showings in both the Northern California State Championships and the Western States Open in Reno while simultaneously having an amazing result in the Tuesday night marathon which I spoiled when I blundered execessively to get miniatured in the last round as white. Still though even through these bad results I luckily managed not to lose FIDE rating points in any of them while my USCF rating did a little very temporary dip below 2100. Lately I feel like I've been playing quite solidly with real chances to have breakthrough results, but I've kept coming short. American Open I managed to show a very sad quality of poor technique in winning my won positions which I was very disappointed with. I played the strong East Bay FIDE Swiss and had a solid performance there, but again missed some key opportunities in some of my games both where I could have failed to win a won game and where I failed to be as resourceful as I could in some of the other games. Then recently in Las Vegas I saw laziness in quite a few of my moves. I'm hoping this was just due to fatigue after just having finished a long tournament, but I will be very aware when I play in my upcoming event in 2 weeks.

Why didn't I break 2200?
I don't think I was working as hard and specifically on the right areas as I should have been. I've been making a serious effort to improve my calculation lately, I still feel like this is one area I'm significantly lacking in and I will continue to work on. Right now I have two problems in that I'm both a lazy calculator (I miss opportunities for both sides) and my calculations are a little slow, but there are instances where I've seen some improvement lately. I also think I underestimated the difficulty of this goal, but I feel confident that I'm closing in on this barrier.

What about the other goal?
I think I did a better job of declining draws in positions where I felt I was the one with more to play for, possibly a few slips from this, but for the most part I showed a good killer instinct in this respect. On the other hand I saw that I was having a lot of trouble winning won positions which I feel I should be able to win a very high proportion of the time.


Goals for 2007:
1) Break 2200 USCF (currently ~2128): I'm hoping this won't be as hard as it's seemed lately, I need to continue to work on my calculation.
2) Break 2200 FIDE (as it stands approximately 85 points to go): This will have the nice benefit of enabling me to play in such events as the Las Vegas Masters more easily, I think I need to fix some of the problems I have where I make bad decisions to lose the games in simple situations. This is particularly bad against lower rated players where I should win more often than not.
3) IM or GM scalp. I had more than a few good shots in 2006, the older and wiser me should be better at carrying through.

If anybody thinks of some more good ones that I should have I'd be more than willing to consider them.

Game of the Year 12th Place

Game of the Year 12th Place

Privman vs Krasik

This game contained mistakes yes, but it was not as if it was blunder-filled and the move Rxe4 was a very nice move to have on the board, I really think this really deserved some more credit in the voting. Imagine the match situation: Boston only won this match 3-1 so a loss for Krasik would have meant only a tie for the Blitz and Krasik still has the confidence to play the fantastic move Rxe4 when the consequences of a miscalculation would completely change the outcome of the match. I think it's a little strange not to take the situation in the match into serious consideration. I think Arun's ranking is probably more appropriate, a few other games were mostly given game of the week due to a few surprising moves and the comment "the technique was less than perfect, but good enough to win."

As for the lack of comments, this seems strange. How does nobody mention the importance that this game took place on board 4 in a close match between a gigantic sports rival. In the regular season the matches don't get much more exciting than New York - Boston unless San Francisco is involved and it seems overly criticizing the quality of the moves in a real game in a complex position is a little uncalled for. And where is the comment for the Shabalov + Vicary team vote? Here are a few of my (very serious) theories on what happened here:

1) Clint Ballard paid off the judges to make sure Krasik would not finish near the top, but unfortunately this was included in the comment.
2) Shahade didn't get the vote from Vicary and Shabalov in time and and decided to vote for two and figured voting for another team was enough, no need to put words in their mouth too.
3) Vicary and Shabalov decided to make genital jokes about Rxe4 and Shahade was trying to keep the comments at least PG-13.
4) To counter-act and east-coast bias in the geographical location of the judges Vicary and Shabalov decided to tank their vote on this game and explicitly mentioned this in their comment and to prevent controversy this was censored.
5) The comment reveled that it indeed takes exactly 43 licks to get to the center of a tootsie pop and Shahade decided to keep this secret to himself to try to raise money for the league with this ultra-sensitive information.
6) ???
7) Profit!

Anyways, I'd like to give a shout-out to Krasik who I met at last week's North American Open. It's always nice to meet more US Chess League personalities in real life, I hope those of you that read this blog ever will let me know what you think if you catch me at a tournament, at least those of you I don't already know are readers.

North American Open Result / New Year's Resolution

I'm pretty tired right now and I have work tomorrow, but I figured I'd post some brief results. I went 4/4 with black and 0.5/3 with white, this could be considered coincidental, but I think in all 3 games as white I had real opening problems in some sense. In my last 9 games as black I'm 6.5/9 with the only 2 losses coming against GMs. This is a solid result. I'd like to make my white results equally as good.

Chess New Year's Resolutions:
1) Improve my calculation and try to play fewer superficial moves at the board.
2) Improve my calculation.
3) Improve my calculation.

EBCC FIDE "swiss" result

The event finished without any spectacular or disasterous results. I beat NM Andy Lee in round 6 after I achieved a much better position, blundered it away in one move, and then had the favor significantly returned to me. In round 7 I lost to IM Pruess after chances were missed for both sides during the complications. In round 8 I recieved a forfeit due to some incidents. In round 9 I lost unfortunately smoothly to IM Sarkar after playing too aggressively in the opening. In round 10 I achieved a nice position from the opening against GM Panchanathan, then I played a few inaccurate moves to give him the advantage which followed him winning a second pawn but giving me real counter-play. He blundered allowing me to win a piece, but I was playing quickly as not trying to drag on the game and I thought I chose between two moves that were equally good, but he had a shot against my choice that didn't work against the other so he won the game quickly from there. All in all I feel what this tournament let me know the most was that I need to work harder on my calculations at the board and that I still have a few minor holes in my opening preparation that need some work. I need to slow down some of my decisions and calculate more thoroughly, but I believe if I can achieve this I can improve my results quickly.

Rating Change: 2119->2125

EBCC FIDE "swiss" half-way

So far I'm 1.5/5 for traditional scoring and 4/13 for BAP. I missed a forced draw in round one against IM Roussell-Roozmon, in round 2 I beat Mr. BAP himself, in round 3 I lost to FM Rensch who roughed me up. In round 4 I continue this losing to Sharavdorj as black although he's known for being particularly tough as white. In round 5 I got paired against Shankland, I missed on my guess for his prep and didn't know the line I played too well, but I defended pretty well and he rushed through the endgame so I managed to hold. Strange thing is in round 6 I'm paired against Andy Lee who is having a stellar tournament now with 3 wins in a row with the last two over IMs as black. Now I get him as black. THIS WILL BE MY 3RD BLACK IN A ROW! Oh well, I shouldn't mind, all my points so far are as black.

EBCC FIDE "Swiss"

EBCC FIDE "Swiss"

I guess the name of this tournament stuck even after it was changed from a swiss event to a BAP event. Maybe it should just be EBCC Norm tournament or maybe it should now be the EBCC FIDE Tournament, EBCC FIDE BAP, granted that last one is a little acronymn-packed. Of course the name is not so important, the tentative field so far (minus me) might be more important:

Name   Title FIDE USCF Fed
Magesh Panchanathan GM 2485 2526 IND
Jesse Kraai  IM 2473 2545 USA
John Fedorowicz  GM 2469 2517 USA
Dashzegve Sharavdorj GM 2463 2523 MGL
Lev Milman  IM 2463 2504 USA
Josh Friedel  IM 2460 2535 USA
Thomas Roussel-Roozmon IM 2446 2572 CAN
Vladimir Mezentsev IM 2409 2488 RUS
David Pruess  IM 2404 2461 USA
Justin Sarkar  IM 2380 2390 USA
Danny Rensch  FM 2369 2428 USA
Andy Lee  NM 2259 2257 USA
Batchimeg Tuvshintugs WIM 2237 2278 USA
Sam Shankland  NM  2208 USA
Clint Ballard   2062 1914 USA

(from http://www.eastbaychess.com/tourney/06/masters.php)

The tournament is a 10-rounder so presuming the field doesn't change (which is probably likely as it's less than a week before the start of the event)I will face a minimum of 5 IMs/GMs. That's a minimum of 5 cracks at doing what I've failed to do so far, secure a point (or fraction thereof) against an IM or higher. I'm not sure what my goal should be for this tournament, it might be that if I don't get on the board early it might be hard to make a comeback in this field. But I'll make some practical goals for this tournament:

1) No opening disasters, that is no lost positions right from the opening carried through for the rest of the game.
2) AT LEAST 2.5/10, this is not an easy goal, but I don't want to pretend like I'll be "happy enough" with 4/10 either, I will be trying to win all of my games (at the beginning of them) this tournament.
3) Practice reasonably good time management (don't play too fast or too slow).
4) Don't miss any good tactical shots my opponents give me.
5) Don't play any scared chess, be looking to punish moves I believe are "wrong".
6) Avoid getting taught "lessons" at the board, but make sure to have most opportunity to learn from each game.

Now some other possible, but not easy goals:
1) Beat an IM
2) Finish better than 2nd to last.

Guthrie McClain Memorial

Guthrie McClain Memorial

Okay, I was a little slow about writing this one up, sorry to my loyal fans. First round I won pretty smoothly. Second round I got a gigantic advantage out of the opening only to blow it away and I eventually won some same color bishop endgame after missing many wins in it where it may have even been drawn at some point (although I'm not 100% sure). Third round I played a low expert, I was careless in the opening and allowed a check to displace my king where I still stood well, but needed to play some active moves as despite my exposed king I was still ahead in development, I failed to do so and got an inferior position. I did create tricks in the position however which allowed me to come back and I even missed a simple win. I was still pushing in an opposition color bishop + rook endgame where in time trouble I blundered to allow a simplification into a dead-drawn opposite color bishop endgame, but the original endgame may have been drawn anyways. In the fourth round I faced the talented kid Nicholas Nip. As a note, in the current rating list I have now played (and gotten at least a draw) against the #1 age 8, age 10, age 11, and age 16. Nicholas surprised me in the opening being very well prepared after last time when he carelessly dropped a piece in the same opening. I got a tough position and tried to sacrifice an exchange to stay alive, but I played a few inaccurate moves and he collapsed my position. In the last round I played my friend Chad Salinas who I knew when we were both in Southern California. I actually misplayed the opening and he was probably already ok, but then he blundered away a crucial center pawn and resigned.

What can I say about this tournament? My score of 3.5/5 isn't great, but it's not terrible either. I wasn't too happy with my technique in round 2, and I shouldn't have missed simple stuff in round 3, in round 4 I wasn't happy, but my opponent played well, of course I'd prefer to "school" these grade-school prodigies, but g/45 is tough. In round 5 I need to study this opening line a little better (which I have some now and am even considering adding it as a possible defense as black), but at least I didn't miss my opportunities.

Rating Change: 2125 -> 2119

US Chess League Championships!!! My completely biased predictions

Okay, for the 2nd week in a row, I will be writing completely biased predictions which will be criticized and then end up being criticized for being biased even though I never claimed otherwise.

Board 1: IM Friedel - GM Charbonneau
Friedel has been untouchable this season as white except one game where he was defending and probably lost, but saved a draw after some middlegame inaccuracies. Will Charbonneau dare repeat this line with Josh having another chance to prepare? My guess is he'll probably play another 2.. e6 sicilian, but maybe a different setup this time, that one he played last time is actually one I faced this weekend and I have the feeling the very early d5 might be a little dubious. Edge still goes to Friedel who is always tough as white.

Board 2: IM Krush - IM Pruess
Krush has done quite well this season whereas Pruess' season hasn't been as good as he's hoped, but he came off a very strong result this weekend at the American Open and will come in with good confindence. I think stylistically this matchup should be very interesting, both players are strong calculators, I give Pruess the edge due to his strong recent results.

Board 3: IM Zilberstein - FM Hess
Hess has managed to save some tough positions this season, but Zilberstein is probably the second toughest opponent he's faced all season and Zilberstein is also coming off a strong showing at the American Open. Also Zilberstein has been quite strong this season, his only loss was to Vavrak who has been incredibly tough in the US Chess League. This is also only Zilberstein's 2nd game as white this season. My guess is Hess will put up a good fight, but Zilberstein will grind out the "W".

Board 4: Herman - NM Shankland
I think this time control works well for Shankland, he's capable of putting his opponents under pressure without suffering from the lack of time. As long as Shankland is well prepared I expect he'll have good chances, but Herman has also been tough, I'll rule this one a toss-up.

Okay, so we'll assume somehow NY gets their best possible result:
San Francisco over NY 3-1.

American Open Results

American Open Results:
Well, as I seem to spend a good deal of time here writing about the Mechanics, I might as well congratulate IM Pruess and IM Zilberstein for their performances this weekend. I would also like to congratulate my former (due to geographical restrictions) coach GM Khachiyan on his victory and his very nice win over GM Perelshteyn (who led almost the entire way). Pruess tied for 1st place in the tournament with Khachiyan. Zilberstein took clear first U2450, I talked to both of them after their games, both seemed very unhappy that they didn't do better! Apparently BOTH were upset about not scoring more, I invite them to take out their frustration with having each of their most recent games being a draw to turning their most recent games into wins on Wednesday in the US Chess League championships against New York.

[Update: I forgot to mention when I originally wrote this that not only did Pruess and Khachiyan win the event, their victories also qualified them for the 2007 US Championship. An additional congratulations to these two for this accomplishment.]

My result:
Well, my result I can't really call "bad", but in many ways I was unhappy with my play. I'll cover round by round. The first four rounds were game in 1 hour. In round 1 I played IM Matikozyan as black. He played a bad move against the french and I opted out of the most natural (and best!) reply to play a move over which I completely overlooked his response. I could accept a very depressing position, but instead I decided to sacrifice a pawn. This actually was probably not the correct decision, but anyways, he held onto his pawn and won the game although we were both under 1 minute at the end of the game and he had to find a fairly easy breakthrough to win, but still, not a great way to lose.

In round 2 I faced my friend NM Julian Landaw as black. A little history in this pairing: we've played 4 times now, I've had black in all 3 encounters. I collapsed quickly in our first meeting, but in the 2nd one I basically refuted his opening and in the 3rd game I again refuted the same opening, but failed to convert and drew the game. After this game, he entirely changed lines against the french and this time played a King's Indian Attack against it. We got an interesting position from the opening and after a few inaccuracies on my part he had a slightly better position, but I defended well and in the time scramble even developed an initiative after finding a series of accurate moves. In fact, at one point I had FORCED MATE! but it was tricky and I missed one move in the continuation that wasn't too hard to find. I'm quite upset about this as I saw the key idea just missed the simple continuation, quite sad. Even though I only had 1:30 on my clock I still believe I should find this win, I actually offered him a draw before he blundered not wanting a game between friends to be decided by a zeitnot blunder, and I guess it wasn't unfortunately. Eventually we drew although even in the final position (although under a minute + delay) I actually was still winning. If this were an isolated incident I could live with it.

Due to the small 3-day schedule in the open section I received a full point bye in round 3. Normally I much prefer to play, but after 2 games that went the full 2 hours I hadn't had any time to eat and was starving so I got to spectate in round 3. In round 4 I played 6. f4 against the Najdorf playing NM Paul Gallegos as white when I played a series of inaccurate moves in the opening which I was relatively unfamiliar with only to get an inferior position. I fought hard to defend in the middle game and eventually he went wrong by allowing some unfavorable exchanges and already I had a better position. At some point when we were both under 5 minutes he had a chance to just remain a pawn down in a R+ minor piece ending or to sacrifice his bishop for my 2 remaining pawns and defend R+N vs R+P which would have been unpleasant. Instead he let me trade into what is probably a winning R+P ending, but with less than a minute on my clock I reached for a pawn, grabbed it and immediately realized I had given up a draw. He decided not to take it and we played a few moves in this dead drawn position, but I defended with ease and we shook hands shortly afterwards.

So I had survived day one of what some were dubbing "the dead zone" due to the tough field (in fact, IM Zilberstein played UP in round 1. In round 5 I played a master from Austrailia a good piece of preparation netted me a winning position, but I failed to play some simple moves and got myself in trouble at which point I was relieved by my opponents draw offer. I was probably not worse in the position, but I certainly wouldn't mind playing the black side.

In round 6 I played my friend NM Ilya Serpik whom I have a very good record against. On move 23 I won a pawn, but I somehow moved my queen from an absolutely beautiful square on c3 and allowed counter-play and took a draw.

In round 7 I played NM Aigner who I had played recently played. He surprised me by playing the Sveshnikov and I got a good position, but it was complicated and I got myself into time trouble and played some bad moves to throw away my advantage and give my opponent a strong attacker, a good attack. He easily wiped me away and gave me my second loss of the tournament.

I should talk about my feelings going into the last day. I had played 6 rounds (okay, only actually played 5) and still hadn't put a win on the board, I was quite upset as at this point I had 4 games where I had winning positions. So in round 8 I prepared for a Caltech grad student Cedric Pahud who is from Switzerland. I had prepared for about 30 minutes the 6. f4 line against the Najdorf that I played in round 4, but when the position arose on the board I flippantly decided that I would play Be3 instead. My opponent played a side line that isn't supposed to be good, but I played some inaccurate moves and I did not get as big of an advantage as I think I could have. Anyways, we played on and I got a strong attack eventually, but allowed the position to complicate near time control (where I got in time trouble along with my opponent trying to find the strongest continuations. Eventually i won a pawn, but the position was very wild, but I found a strong continuation but my opponent eventually buckled under the pressure and allowed me to force mate. Finally a win!

Rating change: 2110-> 2125

USCL Division Championships Predictions

USCL Division Championships Predictions:

There are two exciting match-ups tomorrow night on ICC as part of the US Chess League. In the eastern division the Boston Blitz face off against the New York Knights in a classic sports rivalry while in the western division the San Francisco Mechanics take on the Seattle Sluggers of whom one of the biggest season rivalries took place with. Here's the breakdown of each match:

Boston Blitz vs New York Knights (Boston has draw odds)

These two teams met up just a few weeks ago with very similar lineups, the only differences on each side were board 1 for Boston and board 3 for New York, and the two games with the same players have colors reversed. Last time it ended in a 2-2 tie, this isn't good enough for New York this time around (although it wasn't ideal last time around either), which team has improved their chances more?
Board 1:
GM Christiansen - GM Charbonneau
These two have a colorful history in the USCL. In 2 encounters, both times Christiansen having the white pieces, he has failed get on the scoreboard and was posterized in the USCL game of the season from season 1 when Charbonneau managed to come back from a piece down (albeit complicated) position to win. I'm sure Christiansen is eager not to let his score drop to 0-3 with the white pieces and I expect him to have a slight edge in this encounter.

Board 2:
IM Krush - IM Foygel
The last time these two met up was just a few weeks ago with colors reversed. Foygel got the better end of that fight in a line he seemed to know better than Krush it seems unlikely the same thing will happen this week when Krush has the white pieces. Seems like the one thing you should be able to guarantee with the white pieces is getting a position you're comfortable with. Krush should have a slight edge in this match-up, probably similar to the one Christiansen has on board 1.

Board 3:
NM Riordan - FM Hess
This is in my opinion one of the truly tough games to try to say something useful about. I think Riordan having the white pieces should negate any rating edge Hess has, but all 3 results are possible, I think this one is pretty even but a decisive result is likely, could be an important game to the match.

Board 4:
Herman - NM Krasik
It would be easy to think about the encounter these two had a few weeks ago and say "If Herman won with black, he can certainly win with white", well things never work out so easily in practice. Krasik has been tough all season and seems to deserve the edge on board 4.

The key to this match is going to be the Riordan - Hess game. If Hess can win, New York will have very real chances to upset New York, but I think without a full point there they could be without much hope and a loss would all but put the nail in the coffin. I think Boston moves on to the league championships about 75% of the time.
Boston over New York 2.5-1.5


San Francisco Mechanics vs Seattle Sluggers (SF has draw odds)

Certainly for me, the self-proclaimed biggest fan of the Mechanics, this is the match I'll be looking forward to on Wednesday. I won't pretend to be the most objective analyst in this battle, but at the same time, San Francisco already has had an impressive season with 10 straight weeks without a loss which is good news since all they have to do is not lose to move on to the league championships. In my 9 weeks as a prognosticator (I didn't start until week 2) I predicted San Francisco to win 8 times and draw only in the final week of the season when their playoff outcome was crystal clear. I will as I have been almost every Wednesday (except when it was the Monday Night game) be watching the Mechanics live. If you want to see them in action, I highly suggest you stop by this Wednesday.

Board 1:
IM Friedel - IM Serper
So far in their season encounter white has won both games which would bodes well for Friedel who in my opinion is much tougher to face when he's holding the white pieces. I also believe that Friedel has a positive lifetime score against Serper. I think Friedel has got a slight edge in this confrontation.

Board 2:
IM Orlov - IM Bhat
A few weeks ago these two were pitted in what was dubbed a match between two players undefeated in the USCL. Thanks to Bhat's nice victory in that game we don't have to worry that it will be given the same title this time around. I'm guessing it will be a semi-slav which would seem too theoretical compared to much of what Orlov plays which I think should give the edge to the generally well-prepared Bhat. I'm also expecting a somewhat wild encounter as Seattle needs to try to stir things up to give themselves the best chance to make it.

Board 3:
IM Pruess - FM Milat
Milat joined the Sluggers late into the season and played just the minimum two matches to make him eligible for post-season play. Seattle sends in a cold player to try to defend against the Mechanics? I'm guess this will be an Alekine's defense which already spells bad news for the Sluggers, edge to Pruess.

Board 4:
Lee - NM Shankland
This is another match-up we've seen a couple of times this season already. Both times white won, will it be a threepeat for the white pieces? I'm not as confident here. Last time black got a very reasonable position from the opening and just played one misstep to get into some real trouble. After this incident the young Shankland has been under the "nanny cam" having to sit in between two players so he will feel pressured not to move so impulsively. So far this has worked well as Sam has won all other encounters this season. I'm not feeling mean enough to outright claim an edge for SF on all 4 boards so I'll just call this one an "interesting" encounter.

All the Mechanics have to do to move on is not lose, shouldn't be too tough, they've been doing exactly that all season long. I won't even give a % for SF to move on because likely the number I would write down would be illogical (how can you win more than all the encounters anyways??).
San Francisco advances over Seattle 3-1

Carroll Capps Memorial

In past years this was a relatively strong event, it wasn't quite as strong this year, but there were a few masters I wanted to get a crack at. The tournament started well, in the first round I got my warm-up by slowly outplaying a B-player to get the win as black. In the second round I played a young (and hence dangerous) 1800 as white and got a nice King's Indianesque mating attack on the white side of the open Sicilian strangely enough. In round 3 disaster struck. My opponent played a move I knew from previous preparation to be dubious, but I didn't take the time to calculate moves I "knew" to be theory when in fact I was confusing two similar lines that would have been easy to check if I had calculated so I ended up just dropping a pawn then followed it up by blundering and exchange. I fought back tough and at some point was even up a pawn for the exchange I blundered so early, but my opponent held on for the win. In round 4 (the last g/1) I faced an unrated guy from Germany who was reasonably strong and had a provisional (but still unpublished) rating of 179x. He played a tricky opening line and I made one mistake to give back his sacrificed pawn and go into an endgame that was slightly better for black. My opponent seemed eager just to draw, but I was not ready for this result so I played on despite my slightly inferior position and I was rewarded later by being able to play a nice tactic on the board that won 2 pawns (it offered a rook sacrifice that could not be accepted do to a somewhat strange looking mate) and after that I won easily. So finally I got to go home and rest and prepare for an opponent I had played not too long ago. This time he chose to play the advanced variation against "my" french defense and played 2 or arguably 3 horrific positional moves the the opening when I got what I thought was close to a winning advantage. Unfortunately I played one move based on miscalculation which gave him the moves h3 and g4 for free which really put me under a bind. I thought my position was close to lost when I realized that I had a nice resource which he needed to avoid as it won on the spot following a strong attack I had for the exchange. I eventually ended up in a 3 pawn up R+N endgame where my technique was far from optimal but more than good enough to win. In the last round I finally got to play NM Michael Aigner. This was my first game against a player 2200-2450 since reno (i.e. a stronger player, but one I could be reasonably expected to score some points against too). I played very strangely in the opening (he played the bird's opening which is famous for with the nickname fpawn on ICC) and we reached a complicated middlegame which just favored white in all variations unfortunately, I tried to generate some tricks, but it was to no avail and he wrapped up the point cleanly. Overall even though the result was similar, I can be much happier with my play this weekend, I feel my tactics getting better, I just need to continue to practice before American Open in 2 weeks.
Estimated Rating Change: 2116 ->2110

EBCC Nov Swiss

I was quite lazy reporting on this disappointing result. Sam Shankland convinced me to play in this tournament at the East Bay Chess Club when normally I avoid tournaments with no or little chance of playing stronger opponents (yes I realize the paradox in this, but I'm not strong enough where I feel this is a real issue yet). He told me I would be the 5th seed in what is normally a small event so this looked like a good chance to play "up" in 2/4 rounds or more. However, when I arrived that Saturday (a little over a week ago now) I found out this was not the case at all and in fact I was the 2nd seed. So I started the tournament against a mid-A player who surprised me with a move that is probably objectively bad, but was quite difficult to find the best response to over the board. Fortunately, he soon when awry and played a sacrifice that I proved unsound due to a counter-sacrifice. I achieved an endgame that should be won with 2 Knights versus a rook, but the technical task was quite difficult and I messed it up a little bit an failed to win. Quite sad. The next round I played one inaccurate move in the opening in a Petroff and already a very sterile position was reached and after only slightly more than 20 moves the position was near dead so we shook hands. This wasn't quite as bad as the opponent was also an expert. I came back the next day looking to finally get a W on the board when I faced Adarsh Konda for the 3rd time in about 2 months as black. This time he again chose a different line against the Slav, I didn't choose the best reaction, but still got a very comfortable position from the opening. I held a slight advantage for a long time, but then near time control (due to missing my B.A.R.T train and also missing the first bus from the BART station I showed up 30 minutes late to the game) I played some inaccurate moves and I was on the slightly worse side of an endgame which I held without too much difficulty. In the last game I was playing another A-player looking for some blood after 3 draws in a row. After some opening inaccuracies on my part I already felt under pressure as white, but fortunately my opponent let me back in the game and at some point I traded into an endgame that I was almost positive would be winning or at least in practice winning for me, and after missing like 5 wins (but to be fair, they weren't trivial 1-move wins or anything, they required very concrete calculation, which is no excuse, but at least not as pathetic) I only managed to draw. So 4 draws in 4 rounds, incredibly disappointing and 2/4 is definitely my worst "undefeated" result ever.
Rating change: 2129 -> 2116

USCL Playoffs Wildcard Round

Playoffs Wildcard Round

After the insane finish in the USCL East, this should be an intense final. I don't know if the prediction competition ended with the regular season, I still have a hefty lead and there probably aren't really enough matches left for the official prognosticators to catch up without a Carolina-style miracle to occur anyways. But I will make traditional score predictions and give you what I think the percentage of the time each team moves on is just for some extra information during this exciting time of the season.

New York Knights vs Carolina Cobras (NY has draw odds)
Board 1: GM Charbonneau - IM Milman
These two already have an interesting history this season alone. In their first encounter Milman looked quite lame as white losing quickly and getting mated in the middle of the board. In their second encounter Milman turned the tables unexpectedly winning as black. Now these two face off in the playoffs with the same color as their second encounter. The edge I'll give to Charonneau, even as white. (Note that in the regular season black won the season match 100.5-99.5)

Board 2: FM Hoekstra - IM Krush
In their last encounter with these colors Krush played a QGA and went into one of the symmetrical pawn-structure lines where white usually has a very nagging edge. Not in this particular game though. Hoekstra didn't play in the spirit of the position it seems and quickly got a passive position which Krush finished off easily. As Carolina picked their colors for this match, I'm thinking he'll have some improvements prepared, but Krush is a versatile player who can play many different openings, I think she has the edge in this matchup.

Board 3: FM Hess - FM Zaikov
Zaikov started the season very hot this year, and still finished the season with his only loss being against IM Costigan. Hess on the other hand started the season struggling with board 2 duties, but since his move down to board 3 he has been quite successful. This should definitely be a close game, both players are young and confident, my guess is a small edge to Hess with the white pieces.

Board 4: NM Jones - Herman
At the end of the season Herman managed to hold his own against some tough opposition, but Jones finished the season 5.5/6, that cannot be ignored, especially when he has white for this game. Jones is favored by a bit.

So it seems that NY has a very real edge on a bunch of boards, but Carolina always has an X-factor by having an incredibly young lineup where they're behind. The edge has to go to NY, but Carolina should have good chances for an upset, that being said, I'm not sure they deserve any more luck after last week.
NY over Car 2.5-1.5
NY has draw odds, I predict they move on roughly 75% of the time.


Dallas Destiny vs Seattle Sluggers (Seattle has draw odds)
Dallas failed to win just last week with the same colors, this week Seattle has draw odds. We are seeing some different faces than last week though. The seemingly untouchable IM Vavrak sits out for the Destiny this week and FM Zaremba also steps down to let IM Kuljasevic and FM Igor Schneider try to step it up this week.

Board 1:
IM Stopa - GM Serper
Last week Serper played some sideline of the semi-slav, strangely declining to go into the semi-slav as black. I'm not sure if he'll be willing to try this again as it seemed as though white was never in serious trouble and will probably have an improvement prepared. However, Serper is not one to be afraid of a fight, I think this matchup is fairly balanced, maybe a slight edge to Serper.

Board 2:
FM Mikhailuk - IM Kuljasevic
Kuljasevic has sat out more than a few weeks this season, this is only his 4th match in the USCL. He's had reasonably results, going 2.5/3 beating Pruess as white and drawing the struggling Roman with black. Mikhailuk on the other hand has struggled late in the season and is probably hoping to get some footing so the team knows he can be depended on, especially as white. I think Kuljasevic has the edge here.

Board 3:
FM Schneider - FM Readey
Schneider hasn't looked too imppressive in his matches so far going just 1/3, but he's young and this is only the second time he takes the white pieces this season. I don't know if he has some concrete idea in mind against Readey who's been reasonably solid this season, but he might need something. I'm guessing this game will be a draw, but probably slightly better chances for Schneider.

Board 4:
NM Koons - NM Kiewra
Dallas and Seattle send out the same board 4s this week with the same colors. This makes a lot of sense for Seattle, but probably not as much for Dallas. Their last week's game was messy, but it seemed that white got a nice initiative which he held for most of the game. I'm guessing Kiewra is going to have some concrete ideas in mind playing the same player with the same color for the second week in a row, still these things don't always go so well.

Overall I'd say it's a pretty even match, no boards with a particularly huge edge to either side and with Seattle having draw odds for this match, that will likely be good enough. Probably the key matchup in my mind is the rematch on board 4, if Kiewra can bring in a full point there it could mean victory for the Destiny. So if we say that'll happen roughly 30-35% of the time, we probably almost get their odds in the match.
Seatle ties Dallas 2-2 (to move on)
Roughly 70% chance of Seattle moving on to the next round.

Lack of Scandal in the USCL?

First I would like to preface this, I honestly don't believe that anybody did anything to intentionally alter the results in this final week of play in the US Chess League, but when the line is margins and funny things that would normally be dismissed happen they make a big difference.
So I was watching at the Mechanics the San Francisco - Miami match when the whole series of mouseslips occurred. As I witness McCambridge was having trouble with his mouse, he accidentally picked up the rook on b1 and then was trying to set it back down which he was struggling with and for some reason tried to then move the knight without having let go of the rook at which point he accidentally dropped the rook on d1 at which point he immediately claimed a mouseslip. Of course it's quite obvious that an IM would not just simply undefend a pawn on b4, it's not even a typical blunder as his move relaly had no additive purpose (his position was already quite bad). Then there was a the Lugo - Zilberstein game where Lugo played 17. Re5 which didn't really surprise me as I was watching the game and had considered this move thinking that black couldn't take due to dxe5 Bxe5 as played (temporarily) in the game, of course I missed 18... Bd6 which wins the game. So all of this was played on the board during this incident in the McCambridge - Becerra while McCambridge was asking for his takeback. So I'm very confused about the Miami side of the Lugo incident. I don't know if he legitimately played Re4, I would say it's less obvious that this move is a mouseslip of course I can't say for sure that it wasn't except it seems strange, especially due to the timing of this incident that Lugo played a SECOND move after Re5, like if it was a mouseslip the time to stop was after fxe5. I've also heard (unconfirmed) that Miami uses relayers to make moves in which case takebacks are explicitly allowed by the league rules if the correct move was made on the physical board. Anyways, both the games were won by the non mouse-slippers so it didn't end up making a difference in the end.

However, we're not done with strange incidents that had playoff implications. New York tied Philadelphia and Baltimore lost to Boston which actually opened the door for Carolina to make the playoffs with a 4-0 sweep on Tennessee ONLY. This is a pretty tall order against any team, but as the season has gone if you have to do this against some team, it might as well be Tennessee. However as things finished in the final position on board 2 Hoekstra stood in a trivially lost pawn endgame while his opponent had a 30 second increment to make his moves yet somehow he allowed time to run out. I don't know what caused this, relayer problems, a huge brawl in the Tempo clubhouse, but somehow they lost this game which had little meaning to them where even a draw would have eliminated Carolina from the playoffs. Certainly Philadelphia had other ways of not making the playoffs in this final week of play, but I would say this scenario was quite rare and the way it finished probably left a sour taste in their mouthes.

Anyways, it's all meaningless anyways, time for Mechanics to crush! It's playoff time and there's nothing more exciting than that. Games start next wednesday with Carolina taking black on board 1 and 3 and giving up draw odds against New York while Dallas takes white on boards 1 and 3 against Seattle and gives up draw odds. Dallas made a draw in that exact scenario this week which won't be good enough next week should be exciting to see where they're looking to improve.

USCL Week 10 predictions

Philadelphia Masterminds vs New York Knights
Unfortunately for this hot playoff race in the east Jan Ehlvest is unavailable it seems for Philly this week so it looks like they'll be in a tough position trying to get that final playoff spot with their late season rally. I definitely would rule them out just because of their rating trouble, they have dangerous players on their bottom 2 boards and a very solid player on board 2. Still I think New York has a solid edge on boards 1 and 2 and probably board 3 is a close one. My prediction gives New York the edge.
New York over Philadelphia 2.5-1.5

Baltimore Kingfishers vs Boston Blitz
This is an interesting situation, Baltimore still needs to defend their season to make the playoffs in their own control whereas Boston is sending out a lineup without a GM for the first time I can remember this season. On board 1 Baltimore should have a slight edge, but i wouldn't oversell the title. On board 2 it should be a fairly close game, Kelleher looked strong last week, but Enkhbat would be in MVP contention had he actually been playing this season. On board 3 Kaufman should have a pretty good edge over Riordan, but on board 4 I think I would pick Martirosov over the struggling Rohonyan.
Baltimore over Boston 2.5-1.5

Carolina Cobras vs Tennessee Tempo
Likely Carolina's playoff destiny will not be in their own hands, but if they want to give themselves real chances they have to win this one big and as they've been struggling all season I'm sure they're looking to give themselves every chance to make it. The lineup Carolina is bringing out tihs week looks like it should give them a chance to win on all 4 boards, but don't expect Tennessee to lay down after being excited after their first ever USCL victory. Still, I expect Carolina to take this match by a solid margin.
Carolina over Tennessee 3.5-0.5

San Francisco Mechanics vs Miami Sharks
San Francisco pulled a huge win last week to clinch the division over the division-rival sluggers and this week they're giving a few of their regular guns a rest (they'll also have week 1 in the playoffs off). For Miami however they can't hold back anything in this match. Dallas has a tough match against Seattle, but due to tie-break issues Miami MUST WIN this match in order to advance to the playoffs and they need Dallas to lose to Seattle. I expect Becerra to come out firing with black, but McCambridge has been really tough to beat in the USCL, especially this season. I think Becerra has the edge, but I wouldn't be surprised to see McCambridge put him away in the clean style we've seen from him earlier this season. On board 2 Zilberstein is seeing some time higher in the lineup than he's used to and he's looking at some tough competition so I'll have to give Lugo a slight edge with the white pieces. On board three Mark Pinto, another "Trusty Trustee" as Donaldson put it, is playign against NM Espino, but mark has the white pieces and has been deadly even in his 2 games as black this year, I expect Pinto to show up ready to do some damage, I'd give him the slight edge. On board 4 Sam Shankland faces off against Luis Barredo, on paper he's the lower-rated player, but only due to some old supplements used for the US Chess League to help teams set lineups, I expect Sam will be eager to show his form and I give him the edge here even with the black pieces. Overall I think it will be a close match that could easily go all 3 ways, but I think there's a lot more danger on the Mechanics side as Miami has a lot more to fear in this match. I'd say all 3 results are about equal so I'll be nice to the official USCL prognosticators and pick the relatively dangerous draw. (I can predict Mechanics to not win when all they have to protect right now is an undefeated season)
Mechanics tie Sharks 2-2


Dallas Destiny vs Seattle Sluggers
Seattle doesn't have too much they can gain from this match other than getting to pick their colors in the finals under some rare scenarios, but they're still bringing out one of their tougher lineups for the final week proving they really are playing to win every week. Also I doubt they want to go into the playoffs with consecutive losses. Still it might not be unreasonable not to give away too much against Dallas, if Seattle loses this week they'll likely see the same lineup in week 1 of the playoffs. On board one Stopa faces off against Serper, I think Serper should have an edge even with black, but definitely wouldn't rule Stopa out, he's been solid for Dallas all season. On board 2 Vavrak, who according the USCL page, is undefeated in 2 seasons of play and holds a perfect record this season faces off against Mikhailuk. Vavrak has black, but has been incredibly dangerous so far in the USCL so I have to give him the edge on board 2. On board 3 Zaremba faces Milat, it's a pretty close pairing, but I think Zaremba should have a slight edge as white. On board 4 Kiewra faces Koons in a battle of relatively young masters. This match has huge playoff implications in some sense for both teams, Seattle looking not to give up any psychological edge and Dallas wanting to score to make the playoffs. A draw would suit both teams quite nicely, clinching a playoff spot for Dallas and proving Seattle can do what it takes to move onto the Division Championship next week. I expect no love lost in the match.
Dallas ties Seattle 2-2

Overview:
NY over Phi 2.5-1.5
Bal over Bos 2.5-1.5
Car over Ten 3.5-0.5
SF tie Mia 2-2
Dal tie Sea 2-2

JJ Dolan Memorial

So I had an interesting tournament in this g/45 event. I was definitely not adequately considering my opponents moves in all games which is why I blundered material in 3 different games, luckily I was playing down far enough that I had chances to recover except in my 4th round game against De Guzman where I actually missed a chance to continue, but still in serious trouble. Just a sign I need to slow down when thinking about my moves and also work on my tactics some more. My 3rd round game against an opponent who will remain nameless I managed to win an exchange with a nice opening novelty that Donaldson and I discovered during a lesson and he had negative compensation, but I played a few bad moves and then a terrible move which allowed my queen to get trapped. I was forced to sacrifice the queen and I had just a rook and 2 pawns for the queen, but some very light threats that could be stopped right away which my opponent managed not to do and instead opted for "safer" moves which kept threats for me, but to be fair was still completely winning for him, but I had continual mating threats and finally he made some mistakes and was in serious trouble and lost in short order, was one of my favorite re-swindles ever.

Estimated rating change: 2121->2130
A decent rating recover, time to continue hard work and not depending on incredible luck.

Mechanics Clinch!

The San Francisco Mechanics clinched with a 2.5-1.5 victory over the Seattle Sluggers. There were quite a few interesting games, Zilberstein was likely losing his game for a while, but then got down into a 4v3 rook ending that really should have been lost, but gave drawing chances and honestly considering the situation with just 30 seconds per move he defended spectacularly for a draw. IM Bhat won a nice game to end IM Orlov's undefeated status in a very complicated game. On board 4 NM Shankland got revenge against the Slugger's Michael Lee in a Chinese Dragon. So what happened on board 1? Well, at a quick glance it would appear that Serper won fairly smoothly after getting a slight edge from the opening where he had a nagging endgame advantage. Well, it's kind of hard to agree with you when in fact, amazingly he was losing for one move. The following is the position after white's 29th move, he played Kc3-d4:

Position after 29. Kd4??

Here, believe it or not, black is completely winning with the move 29... b6!! it makes sense when you see that it's tactically justified, but it's really hard to believe such a move exists and in fact wins! Check out the variations below:

29...b6!! 30.Kc3 a) 30.e3 Be5#; b) 30.h4 Be5+ 31.Ke3 Bc3 32.f3[] Nd5+ 33.Kf2 e3+ 34.Kf1 gxh4 35.gxh4 Bb2-+; c) 30.g4+ hxg4 31.hxg4+ Kxg4! (31...Kf4?? 32.e3+[] Kxg4[] 33.Bxe4[] Nxe4[] 34.Kxe4[] Bc7[] 35.f4[] Kh5!? 36.fxg5 Kxg5 37.Bxb6! and draw) 32.Bxe4[] (32.Bxb6 e5+ 33.Kc3 Nd5+) 32...Nxe4 33.Kxe4 Bc7 34.e3 Kh3 35.Kd3 g4 36.Ke2 Kg2 37.e4 e5 38.Ke1 Kf3-+; d) 30.Bxb6 e5+ 31.Kc3 Nd5+-+; 30...Nd5+ 31.Kb3 Bc7 in most non-critical lines black just worms his king back go b7 32.e3 Ne7 33.Bf1 Nc8 34.Bxb6 Nxb6 35.Bxb5 Nd5-+ for example 36.Be8 g4 37.h4 Nxe3 38.fxe3 Bxg3

Instead in the game Friedel played 29... e5, certainly it's impossible to blame him for missing this move with a couple of minutes on his clock, but I can't imagine being white in this position, playing the reasonable looking Kd4 and suddenly seeing b6 on the board in utter shock to find out I was losing! An interesting missed opportunity. My congrats to the Mechanics on their victory and clinching a first week playoff bye and draw odds in the division championship. What a victory and what great Monday Night Chess, truly what Shahade was hoping for when he added this feature in season 2 of the US Chess League.

Rest of Week 9 USCL Predictions

Rest of Week 9 Predictions

Boston Blitz vs Carolina Cobras
The edge in Christiansen-Milman has to be given to LarryC who has dominated thier USCL matchups so far with a 3-0 record and he takes the white pieces this week. In Hoekstra-Kelleher on board two it's a little closer, but Hoekstra still needs to perform a little better to give Carolina a chance for a, as my friend oogee would put it, "late-night rally" into the playoffs. Carolina is close to even on this board due to season play so far. On board 3 we have Riordan-Zaikov, Zaikov finally had a slip not too long ago, first losing and then drawing, but both were against tough opposition, especially for board 3 and I expect him to make a full recovery and have the edge in this game. On board 4 there's Jones-Martirosov. So far this season Martirosov has done well... except in his match against Carolina, and he plays the same opponent this week with the same color (due to them both moving down a board), still I expect him to recover, his opponent will have a slight edge. Look for boston to have a solid edge and not to slip regardless of their playoff lock before the playoffs.
Boston over Carolina 2.5-1.5

New York Knights vs Baltimore Kingfishers
With playoff races tight all across the league except the hard-fighting Tennesee Tempo, all matches this week have serious playoff implications to make for some real excitement in Week 9. This week the 3rd place Knights faceoff against the 2nd place Kingfishers who they trail only by half a GAME (not match) point in the standings. If the season were to end today, both teams would make the playoffs, but Philadelphia has been hot lately and even Carolina isn't out of it yet, so neither team has much room for a slip, especially with Philadelphia having a very solid tiebreak. Anyways to the match...
On board 1 Krush takes the place of her reigning-MVP boyfriend taking the white pieces against Bruci Lopez, she should have a very solid edge with the white pieces. On board 2 we have a battle of youth versus experience in Kaufman - Hess. This could be the key game of the match, I would give Kaufman the edge here, but youngsters are always ready to outperform their expectations. Board 3 features another Kaufman this time taking the black pieces against Bonin, Bonin is a really tough fighter and has a lot of expierience, he certainly has the edge in this game. On board four the game is Zimmer-Molner, Zimmer lost last week as part of Dallas' sweep over Baltimore against a much lower rated opponent, this week he faces a tougher one. My guess is he will have the edge despite his disaster last week. Do these two teams dare tie and allow Philadelphia to pass both of them in the standings with a win? I think Baltimore could be happy enough with that, unfortunately I think New York is going to have something to say.
New York over Baltimore 2.5-1.5

Dallas Destiny vs Philadelphia Masterminds
Jan Ehlvest takes the black pieces agianst Panchanathan this week who scored an excellent win last week leading a Dallas sweep over Baltimore. Still, it seems rare that Ehlvest has much trouble beating lower rated players and I have to give the edge to him this week. On board 2 Stopa takes black against Smith who has struggled against higher-rated opposition as I expect him to do this week so I give the edge to Stopa, even when he takes black. On board 3 the game is Zaremba - Costigan, in my mind, regardless of the MVP standings, Costigan has been of unquestionable value to his team this year, holding his own against much-higher rated opposition. A win this week might put him in position to take a shot at the much-deserved MVP title especially as he's playing up a meager 70 points as black and he luckily doesn't have to face the seemingly unstoppable Vavrak on board 3, edge to Costigan. On board 4 Wilson takes white against Lopez who had a nice victory last week, but with the black pieces his results haven't been as good, I give Philly the edge here. Overall I think Dallas is in for a tough match this week which both teams need wins badly. A win for Philadelphia will assure them to be in playoff position heading into the final week while Dallas needs a win to keep pace with Miami who has a proverbial week off againt Tennesee this week, Philadelphia is definitely looking like the favorite though.
Philadelphia over Dallas 3-1

Miami Sharks vs Tennesee Tempo
Well, I called this match a "week off" for Miami, but I guess they don't like to send in their best when it counts. In such a close race with Dallas and having to face San Francisco in week 10, I don't see how they don't take this match more seriously. I'm not saying they won't win, but they're not in position to garner some ever-valuable tiebreak either when they're sending out a lineup without MVP-leader Becerra. Let's break this one down:
On board 1 w have Moreno-Burnett. Moreno has struggled a bit this season and I thought this would be a good opportunity for Miami to keep him on board 2 and give him some easier opposition and help build some confidence, anyways he instead has to take board 1 agianst Burnett, with the white pieces he should be the favorite, but he's been struggling lately and sometimes these things take a while to break. Board 1 is a tossup in my mind. On board 2 we see Andrews - Espino, if anything should make Tennesee excited it is finally having a rating advantage on board 2. Andrews holds only a half-point to his name this season and is likely eager to change that stat in this game, fortunately for him he has the white pieces and a lower rated opponent, the edge goes to Andrews this week. On board 3 the game is Torres-Wheeler, Torres makes only his second appearance this season a board above where he came in last time (he also played against Tennesee in that match). He caught his opponent in an opening trap last time, but I don't see him winning so easily this week, but he should still have a slight edge in this game. On board 4 Larson takes white against Barredo who two weeks ago pulled a spectacular come-from-behind win against Dallas' Nelson Lopez. This game will likely be a tossup, possibly a slight edge to Larson with the white pieces where he looked impressive earlier this season against Naroditsky. Overall I think this match will be close, but I think it's clear that Tennesee wants it more. If they can't make the playoffs, they might as well affect the playoffs, right? You heard it here first:
Tennesee over Miami 2.5-1.5

Overview:
SF over Sea 2.5-1.5
Bos over Car 2.5-1.5
NY over Bal 2.5-1.5
Phi over Dal 3-1
Ten over Mia 2.5-1.5

Week 9 Monday Night Predictions

This is the last and probably the most exciting Monday night match of the season. This week we have:
Seattle Sluggers vs San Francisco Mechanics
On board 1 there is the rematch of two weeks ago when Friedel defeated Serper. This week Serper takes the white pieces where he can be a really tough opponent. I'm guessing a benko from Friedel based on a few games where Serper has mostly avoided it. Still I think Serper has a moderate edge in this matchup, hopefully Friedel will prove me wrong. On board 2 the game is Bhat - Orlov. This game was touted on the USCL site as a matchup between two players undefeated in US Chess League history. Orlov sports a 2-0-0 record against some tough opposition while Bhat is 3-0-3 against strong opposition. Who will win? Well, I can't say for sure, but I think with the white pieces Bhat should hold a slight to solid edge since he has only failed to win as white once against the especially tough GM Becerra. On board 3 the game is Readey-Zilberstein should be another close matchup. Zilberstein should have a slight edge, but this game has a real 3 result possibility. On board 4 we have a rematch of 2 weeks ago where Shankland made one mis-step in the middlegame and then was suffering. With white this seems less likely to happen and I think he's ready to show his class, especially with the white pieces. I give a moderate edge to Shankland. Overally I think this match will be very close, all kinds of things can happen, but I think San Francisco is more likely to break through.
San Francisco over Seattle 2.5-1.5

Week 8 Prediction Results

Phi over Car
Arun/JG +3

NY tie BOS
Arun +3
JG +0

Dal over Bal
Arun/ JG +0

SF over Tenn
JG +4
Arun +2

Sea over Miami
Arun +3
JG +0

This week:
Arun +11
JG +7

Standings:
JG: 64 points
Arun: 49 points

[Update: I'll trust the official site since despite my math skills I am completley unable to do simple arithmetic. Damn all this math with no numbers.
The totals from the official site are:
Arun: 46 points
Ron: 42 points

If anybody finds an error in the addition of my points (preferably that brings it higher), let me know.]

Rest of Week 8 Predictions:

Rest of Week 8 Predictions:

New York Knights vs Boston Blitz
Perelshteyn takes the reigns on board 1 this week against Charbonneau who has been tough this season, but got knocked down the MVP leaderboard by a revenge loss to IM Milman. Perelshteyn takes the black pieces where he can play solidly or sharply depending on the situation. I'm sure he'll try to keep things interesting and try to get some revenge for teammate Christiansen who has had trouble against Charbonneau so far. I'd give a slight edge to Boston on board 1, but not too big. On board 2 we have Foygel - Krush, Boston should have a good edge here, but Krush is a strong player and her chances should not be underestimated. On Board 3 I would likely give a slight edge to Bonin with white against Riordan. And on board 4 we have the player who has been the x-factor for Boston all season long. Ilya Krasik has been a tough nut to crack this season and I would definitely give him the nod, especially with white, in this game.
Boston over New York 3-1

Baltimore Kingfishers vs Dallas Destiny
On board 1 there is a GM-GM match in Blehm-Panchanathan win which I'll give a slight edge to Blehm with the white pieces. On board 2 the match up is Stopa-Kaufman, Stopa has been tough since he joined the Destiny early in the season and with both a rating edge and the white pieces, I expect him to take care of business. The multi-cultural Dallas line-up continues on board 3 with IM Vavrak taking the black pieces against NM Ray Kaufman, Vavrak will likely have a serious edge in this match up. On board 4 the struggling Nelson Lopez comes off of a tough loss last week to face FM Ralph Zimmer on board 4 this week, certainly the edge goes to Zimmer here. The match should be very close, but I think Dallas has a slight edge and is more likely to breakthrough to grab the victory than Baltimore, but still I think a tie is the most likely result.
Dallas ties Baltimore 2-2

Tennessee Tempo vs San Francisco Mechanics
On board 1 Burnett will try to exact his revenge on Friedel with the white pieces. So far this season Friedel has stumbled around a little bit with black while being tough with white. This matchup could lead to a variety of results, but I think a slight edge belongs to Friedel. On board 2 we have the matchup Pruess-Andrews. I think a significant edge has to belong to Pruess in this matchup. On board 3 we have Wheeler-Zilberstein. Zilberstein has been solid this season, but I'm sure he's looking to do better. This week he gets a much lower rated opponent and should be more than eager to finish the job even with black. On board 4 Shankland takes on the debuting Phay. I think Shankland is probably a little angry after his loss last week and will be more than happy to show he's up to the task of bringing home the full point this week.
San Francisco over Tennessee 3.5-0.5

Miami Sharks vs Seattle Sluggers
First, since this is a blog and I'm more than entitled to state my opinion here since it's MY blog, I will. Seattle tied San Francisco last week and as the line-ups went this was an upset for San Francisco, however rather than be happy with this, Clint Ballard decided to make accusations which to me seem completely inappropriate towards the commissioner claiming some kind of bias and rule-changing, but I think the penalty awarded was pretty reasonable given the circumstances that San Francisco would have less time to prepare for the match. It would of course be nice if things were laid out explicitly in the rules, but the league is still young and the commissioner wanted to leave some flexibility. I don't know if he is making any money off of the league, but I promise you it's not much and he puts a lot of time into organizing it. Also, if it's not clear it really affected the match. Ballard claims Mikhailuk could have drawn the game againt Vinay with more time on the clock, but really he burned up a lot of time very early in the game and by move 14 he was way behind on the clock and already had a tough position. You could claim an extra 10 minutes might help him, but the troubles were not what we would typically call clock-related. This seems to come from Ballard's thought that it's very easy for white to draw if he wants to. I think in the world of theoretical chess this might be true, but over the board with the clock ticking this is rarely such an easy task.
Anyways, now that that's out of the way (kind of), let's get on to this week's match. I think Ballard has created a lot of Danailovesque away from the board distractions, unfortunately his team is not facing the Shahade army this week and I think Miami won't be too intimidated by his actions. On board 1 we have Becerra-Serper, this should be an interesting matchup. Becerra has been really tough lately and holds the white pieces, I give him a slight edge agaisnt Serper this week. On board 2 we have Mikhailuk - Lugo where Mikhailuk should have a slight edge, but probably smaller than the edge on board 1. On board 3 IM Alejandro Moreno Roman faces off against the debuting FM Marcel Milat, Roman has struggled a little this season, but with the white pieces he should be looking at a good edge here. On board 4 NM Koons takes white againt Cabrerra. Could Cabrerra bring the same fourth board magic Miami saw last week? He might need to, Koons came off a solid results at the Slugfest tournament this past weekend and will likely bring some confidence in addition to his rating edge and the white pieces to the board this week. I think Miami holds a slight edge in this match up due to color advantages coming where they matter most, but I think off the board distractions might hurt Seattle a little. I'm going to give the nod to Miami.
Miami over Seattle 2.5 - 1.5

Monday Night Prediction: Week 8

Philadelphia Masterminds vs Carolina Cobras:
This matchup is a repeat of the one from 2 weeks ago with the debut of GM Jaan Ehlvest. This time he faces Milman with the white pieces which likely is better for Carolina as this means they get white on boards where the matchup is closer. I think both white's have a slight edge on boards 2 and 3, but nothing too significant and I think it'll really come down to the story on board 3. Michael Shahade has been solid for the Masterminds so far this season and if he continues this Philly shouldn't have much problem winning the match.
Philadelphia over Carolina 2.5-1.5

Results: Week 7 Predictions

I think I've caught whatever disease the official prognosticators have as I went only 1/5 this week picking a 5-1 team over a 0.5-5.5 team. However, picking the correct score in this matchup did help.

Results:
Miami over Dallas 2.5-1.5
Carolina over New York 2.5-1.5
Baltimore ties Philadelphia 2-2
Boston over Tennessee 3.5-0.5
San Francisco ties Seattle 2-2

This Week:
Ron +5
JG +4
Arun +2

Nailing the Tennessee/Boston match sure helped me.

Standings:
1st: JG (a.k.a. "Mystery Blog Guy") 57 points
2nd: Arun 38 points
3rd: Ron 34 points

Rest of Week 7 Predictions

Rest of Week 7 Predictions:

New York Knights vs Carolina Cobras:
This should be an interesting matchup. The Cobras have been struggling this season and really need to make a late push if they want a hope of getting a playoff spot. On board 1 Charbonneau has white against Milman, the last time these two matched up it was a disgusting slaughter by Charbonneau, this time he gets the white pieces, but sometimes it can be a little easier to prepare as black, still I must give the edge to Charbonneau here. Hoekstra-Krush on board 2 probably favors the more experienced Krush, but not by too much. On board 3 we have Bonin-Zaikov where I think it's close to a wash, Zaikov started hot, but got cooled by Philly last week, but as a whole the team did well to hold against Philadelphia. On 4th board again I think the slight edge goes to New York in Jones-Shahade. I think the key board in this match will likely be board 1. I think if Charbonneau wins, the match will almost certainly belong to New York.
New York over Carolina 3-1

Baltimore Kingfishers vs Philadelphia Masterminds
Again Jan Ehlvest is in the lineup which makes Philadephia a dangerous team. He's a very tricky player and can definitely put up the point as black. Baltimore was a team that Philly managed to beat even without Ehlvest and I'm personally of the opinion that they get good "rating-value" out of Costigan on board 3, but I think the match will be relatively close.
Philly over Baltimore 2.5-1.5

Tennessee Tempo vs Boston Blitz
Tennessee has had a tough season so far, meanwhile Boston doesn't seem to be holding too much back inthis week's lineup, things could really get ugly if Tennessee doesn't score some upsets. Boston looks to clinch or almost-clinch a playoff spot this week. I'm expecting a route here especially with the way Tennessee has shown their ability to collapse. Some of the Boston fans seemed to be upset with me picking them to lose this week, so I'll do them a favor this one...
Boston over Tennessee 3.5 - 0.5

San Francisco Mechanics vs Seattle Sluggers
Probably one of the most anticipated matches this season. The only undefeated team left in the league goes up against a tough Seattle team led by GM Serper. Friedel has the white pieces this week, but Serper knows his systems well, I think this will be a close encounter with all 3 results possible. Board 2 features Tangborn - Bhat. Tangborn has been featuring the English so far this season, but Bhat seems to know his defenses as black quite well, I think this one is probably also a wash, but if anyone has a slight edge I think it's Bhat. Board 3 is Pruess - Mikhailuk, I only recently met Pruess, but I can tell you he is unhappy with anything less than a win no matter who his opponent is, but his opponent this week is a tough one in FM Mikhailuk, but I think the edge has to go to Pruess when he's holding the white pieces. On board 4 we have a youngster matchup in Lee - Shankland. Shankland is a fighting player, but Lee has been a tough nut to crack this season. I think Shankland will come out with something to prove and the edge has to go to him with his killer instinct and higher rating.
San Francisco over Seattle 2.5-1.5

[Update: Mikhailuk is moving up to Board 2 and Readey is on Board 3, I think this makes San Francisco a lot more solid in my prediction likely wavering between 2.5 and 3 instead of 2.5 and 2, so I'm updating my pick for San Francisco to win 3-1]

Overview:
Dal over Mia 2.5-1.5 (already wrong)
NY over Car 3-1
Phi over Bal 2.5-1.5
Bos over Tenn 3.5-0.5
SF over Sea 2.5-1.5 [Updated SF over Sea 3-1 due to changed Sea roster]

Week 7 Monday Night Predictions

Miami Sharks vs Dallas Destiny

We have an interesting matchup this week for monday night between 2 teams vying for that 3rd and final playoff spot. On Board 1 we have experienced GM Becerra against a younger GM in Panchanathan, but with Becerra having the white pieces and being the stronger player, definitely a slight edge to Becerra this week. On board 2 the tides are turned with Dallas having an edge in rating and the white pieces. Board 3 is a little tighter, probably a slight edge to Dallas with Marcel being on a bit of a losing streak (my sympathies after Reno) and likely board 4 is similar news. Overall I give the edge to Dallas.
Dallas over Miami 2.5-1.5

Reno Results

I played Serper in round 1, got a promising position, but went astray near time control and my position was toast. The rest of the tournament was a disaster, I probably lost over 20 points in 5 rounds, managing draws in 3 of the remaining 4 games while playing down in 3 of them. Oh well, lightning stikes twice in the open section and I have plenty to work on.

Week 6 prediction results

Week 6 results:

San Francisco over New York 2.5-1.5
Carolina ties Philly 2-2
Baltimore over Boston 2.5-1.5
Dallas over Tennessee 3-1
Seattle over Miami 3.5-0.5

Even after Boston's loss, they still have a 2 point lead in the east with only 4 matches left, shouldn't be too much of a struggle to hold it. In the west however, things are much closer. The Sluggers trail the Mechanics by only half a point and the two west-coast rivals face off next week for their first match of the season. Likely the winner of the season-series with current draw odds to San Francisco will take the division and get the first round bye plus draw odds in the division championship match. Neither team is in real jeopardy of missing the playoffs with the closest trailers being at 2.5-3.5 and facing eachother next week. If you live in the San Francisco area I would highly recommend coming down to the mechanics institute next wednesday and checking out the delayed commentary by GM Yermolinsky and watch one of the most important matches this season.

And the game by game scores:

San Francisco over New York 2.5-1.5
JG +3
Arun/Ron +0

Carolina ties Philly 2-2
All +0

Baltimore over Boston 2.5-1.5
JG/Arun +3
Ron +0

Dallas over Tennessee 3-1
JG/Arun +4
Ron +2

Seattle over Miami 3.5-0.5
All +0

This weeks scores:
JG +10
Arun +7
Ron +2

Totals:
1st: JG (a.k.a. "Mystery Blog Guy") 53 points
2nd: Arun 36 points
3rd: Ron 29

So I'm almost a perfect week (that is picking five 3-1 victories all correctly in a week for 20 points) ahead of Arun who gained a solid lead of Ron. Arun did wisely this week to mimic some of my more controversial picks although I think I had a few too many this week. I started off trying to pick Miami over Seattle and I was figuring out exactly how this would happen, couldn't really figure it out so I then picked tie, but probably the fact that I couldn't figure out how Miami wins should have set off warning bells. Oh well, hindsight is 20/20.

Week 7 Tuesday Night Marathon Game

Well, I continued my winning ways this week. My opponent played a dubious move in the opening and he soon found his knight trapped. Second week in a row I was up a piece by move 20, this time my opponent played on, I will say my technique was not optimal, but I don't think the win was every in question. This puts me at 6.5/7 for a full point lead on the field going into the last round. I will likely face a weak expert or A player in the last round and I have the white pieces so the situation is definitely good. I would like to win the game anyways, but I won't be doing anything too stupid hopefully. I leave for Reno on Thursday night to play in the Western States Open so hopefully I can continue my winning ways in the open section there, if not, at least it will be good experience.

Rest of Week 6 Predictions

Rest of Week 6 Predictions:

(Note: I have a feeling I'm getting too confident in my predictions, but I think my predictions seem to have a bigger effect on the outcome than the outcome on my predictions.)

Carolina Cobras vs Philadelphia Masterminds
Jan Ehlvest makes his debut in the US Chess League this week after much anticipation enabling Philly to send out by far their strongest lineup this season. The undefeated Boston got lucky by getting out both matchups against Philly out of the way in the first half of the season, however what Ehlvest really brings to the team is enabling them to put strong players on the lower boards and have a 2400+ lineup (because Ehlvest only counts as 2590 for the team despite his 2665 rating). However, I wouldn't rule Milman out this week entirely on board 1, he's a tough fighter and is probably looking to improve his results, particularly when he's getting the white pieces this week. With Philly's solid players below I have to give them the nod this week even with Zaikov back in the lineup.
Philly over Carolina 2.5-1.5

Boston Blitz vs Baltimore Kingfishers
Boston has the only perfect score (but not the only undefeated score) left in the league, but Baltimore is certainly looking to end this claim altogether this week sending out a power-punched lineup unlike the ridiculous thing the sent out last week. Christiansen likely has the nod over Blehm this week, but there are many close matchups. I think the problem for the Blitz might be their board 4 star this year Krasik is running into WGM Rohonyan who while being only rated 2260 USCF holds a fide of 2354. I think it'll be a tough match this week, but I give a slight edge to Baltimore. Maybe I'll just prove that I didn't do my sanity check before making this move.
Baltimore over Boston 2.5-1.5

Tennessee Tempo vs Dallas Destiny
Dallas holds the honor of being the only team to give up any match points to Tennessee, however I don't think they're quite ready to repeat this feat. I would give Dallas a slight edge on boards 1 and 3 and a big edge on board 2, board 3 is a tossup, but at the same time Tennessee is becoming famous for their collapses. Dallas isn't sending out their strongest lineup this week, but it still should be plenty to win.
Dallas over Tennessee 3-1

Seattle Sluggers vs Miami Sharks
Seattle suffered their first loss of the season last Monday after various close calls, thsi week they go up against a cruising Miami team that hasn't lost in 3 weeks. There are relatively tight matchups on all 5 boards of this match, but I have a feeling Ballard did more to create some unwanted looseness in his team than fight by blaming the internet connection (regardless of its responsibility) for the failures during the match. However, both teams are sending out strong lineups this week and I think the "events" will balance themselves out.
Seattle TIES Miami 2-2

Summary:
SF over NY 2.5-1.5
Phi over Car 2.5-1.5
Bal over Bos 2.5-1.5
Dal over Tenn 3-1
Sea tie Mia 2-2

Week 6 Monday Night Prediction

San Francisco Mechanics vs New York Knights

This is probably one of the most exciting Monday Night Matchups of the season. Two chess powerhouse cities face of in San Francisco vs New York. On board one we have Friedel - Charbonneau, Friedel is a really tough player to face, particularly when he has the white pieces. So far this season Charbonneau has whipped out the Classical Sicilian and the Dragon Sicilian, both of which seems suicidal to play against Friedel, I don't know what Charbonneau's going to try, but he'll be uncomfortable or in trouble likely, I give a big edge to Friedel here. On board 2 we have Krush - Bhat, Bhat had some nice preparation in week 1, but he holds the black pieces this week. Bhat is a solid player with excellent preparation, I don't know what we'll see this week, Krush can definitely fire with both guns, but I think all three results are possible. Board 3 we have Pruess- Molner, this has got to be a huge edge for the Mechanics with the rating edge and white. Board for we have Priman - Pinto, New York has the white pieces and the rating edge, but Pinto looked impressive in his debut this season and is undefeated in the league, the edge has to go to New York but don't rule anything out. I think the color matchups work out well for San Francisco this week and I particularly like the board 1 matchup for them, my prediction:
SF over NY 2.5-1.5

Week 5 Prediction Results

Week 5 Results:
NY over SEA 3-1
Bos over Car 3-1
Phi over Bal 2.5-1.5
Dal TIE Miami
SF over Tennessee 3-1

NY vs SEA
JG +2
Arun +2
Ron +0

Car vs Bos
+4 JG/Arun
+2 Ron

Phi vs Bal
+2 JG
+0 Ron/Arun

Dal vs Mia
+3 JG
+0 Ron/Arun

SF vs Tenn
+4 All

That's right, for those of you not paying attention, I picked ALL 5 RESULTS!!!!!

So this weeks totals are:
JG +15
Arun +10
Ron +6

Totals:
1st: Josh 43 points
2nd: Arun 29 points
3rd: Ron 27 points (Thanks for the correction, so much for Caltech graduates being able to add)

It's a good thing that they're official, otherwise they'd look pretty terrible right now.

If you want to join them, beat them

Okay, this is probably a less well known version of that famous saying. For the second week in a row I defeated a master in the Tuesday Night Marathon at Mechanics Institute. This time I beat my 25.5 move win last week with 16.5 move win this week, that's some efficient disposal of masters. Considering in the FIDE rated tournament I played recently in I had a few wins over 70 moves, this is a nice change of pace. I actually spotted a reasonably nice tactical justification (which my opponent blundered into) for a positional move I wanted to play that won the game for me (even he my opponent didn't blunder, my position was quite good). So even with my mixed results lately I still manage to put together some reasonable results. I need to start drilling my tactics more though as I've missed some pathetically easy stuff (even if I found a decent shot today).

Rest of week 5 predictions

The rest of the week 5 predictions

Carolina Cobras v Boston Blitz:
Boston sending out what is probably their premier line-up and Carolina without Zaikov who is the current leader in the MVP races and is 4-0 so far in the league. Maybe it's specific preparation, but this doesn't seem to be their strongest lineup. I would definitely favor Boston.
Boston over Carolina 3-1

Philadelphia Masterminds v Baltimore Kingfishers
Philly has looked better and better each week and all without the return of their future board 1 star GM Jan Ehlvest who is in Europe for the first half of the season and still Baltimore has the nerve to send out a weakened line-up? Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Philly is looking GREAT this week. Please note that while they currently stand 0-4, they have scored exactly 1.5-2.5 every week, even against much stronger lineups.
Philly over Baltimore 3-1

Dallas Destiny v Miami Sharks:
Miami sending out the same line-up again which has done well for them in the league lately. I think these teams are a pretty close matchup in general, but I think Dallas will hurt missing out on GM Panchanthan on board one. However, Dallas' top few boards in this lineup are underrated I think due to having few USCF rated events, I think this tandem of Eastern European last names will serve them well. I think overall the balance is there, but certainly all 3 results are possible.
Dallas ties Miami 2-2

San Francisco v Tennessee Tempo:
San Francisco sending out a strong line-up this week giving Zilberstein a much needed week's rest after having consecutive weeks of tough games which lets them bring Pruess down to board 3 and the tough Naroditsky on board 4 to wrap up the lineup. Tennessee has grown more solid over the season (kind of) but somehow managed to turn what could have been a tie against Seattle last week into a 3.5-0.5 route which worked out well for my predictions not to do worse than the official prognosticators. Friedel finally gets white this week so I'm sure he's eager to show his attacking skill. I'll be modest in my predictions, but I'm hoping for a sweep anyways.
San Francisco over Tennessee 3-1

Summary:
New York over Seattle 2.5-1.5
Boston over Carolina 3-1
Philly over Baltimore 3-1
Miami ties Dallas 2-2
San Francisco over Tennessee 3-1

East Bay Chess Club September Swiss

So this tournament started out as an absolute disaster for me. I was playing down roughly 300 points in round one and after having a much better position from the opening I was lucky not to lose, but I could not find a reasonable way of playing on down the exchange so I took the perpetual and drew. In round 2 I played this kid (who had an excellent result in the tournament) in a Najdorf. I got nothing from the opening (maybe less) and was fortunate he fell for a tactical trick where I won 2 pawns and a queen for a Bishop and Rook, unfortunately he had his own tactical tricks that I missed with his very active pieces and managed to simplify into a drawn same color bishop endgame (which he played the first few moves of quite well) which we drew shortly. Round 3 was another comedy, this one with a less tragic ending to it when I got a much better position right from the opening then my opponent "sacrificed" an exchange after which I missed a simple fork to win ANOTHER exchange, but it didn't matter much as I quickly won the technical position that arose, still not particularly promising that I went to sleep for the second game in a row once I had a winning position. Especially when it caused me to miss a tactic few 1200s would miss even 1 out of 20 games. The last round was bad in one glaring way, I failed to see a relatively simple tactic to win a WHOLE PIECE on move 14, I declined 2 separate draw offers during the game, the first in a complicated position where I was fairly convinced I wouldn't lose under normal circumstances, the second in a position where I already felt I was truly better and really from that point I felt I ground out a nice win. In the final position I'm up only a pawn but shredder showed an evaluation of -5 (I was black again) after thinking for a while even though there was no immediate win and the position involved paralysis which is one of my favorite chess themes to implement (probably too much). Anyways, somehow with my terrible play I managed to score an undefeated 3/4 and not lose too many rating points. My guess is I'll drop somewhere between 2-6 rating points for the tournament which considering my play I consider a tremendous success. I was particularly happy in my NOT TAKING DRAWS FROM BETTER POSITIONS, now I just need to do this against higher rated players.

Monday Night Predictions: Week 5

Well, without time to leave more details: NY 2.5-1.5 (might be more wishful thinking).

USCL Week 4 Predictions: Aftermath

Results:
Miami over Baltimore 2.5-1.5
Seattle over Tennessee 3.5-.5
SF TIE Dallas
Boston over Philly 2.5-1.5
NY over Carolina 2.5-1.5

Mia vs Bal 2.5-1.5
JG +3
Ron/Arun +0

Sea vs Tenn 3.5-0.5
All +2

Dal vs SF 2 - 2
Arun +3
Ron/JG +0

Bos vs Phi 2.5-1.5
All +3

NY v Car
Ron +3
Arun +2
JG +0

Overall
Arun +10
Ron +8
JG +8

Standings
1st: Josh 28 points
2nd: Ron 21 points
3rd: Arun 19 points

They're chipping away at my lead. I still hold I got unlucky as SF looked in good shape all match, unfortunately they had to scrape out a draw at the end. I also don't understand Milman's collapse, but I won't complain about that one as Zaikov played 1. a3 and got the totally busted position he deserved for such a move but somehow found a way to win it to move to 4-0 and top the MVP leaderboard. Maybe he was hoping that if he played 1. a3 he'd get the bonus point for being black in a win or draw, no such luck.

Cat and Mouse Game (TNM round 5)

So the Sveshinkov was an opening I feared facing as the ideas can be farely subtle and it's not easy for white to get an advantage at all. Players such as myself feared facing it enough that attempts such as 3. Bb5 and 3. Nc3 had become more popular. I recently played 3. Bb5 in a game trying to avoid the Sveshnikov (although I realized it was probably a bad decision to trade one line I didn't understand for another line I didn't understand). But for this week's Tuesday Night Marathon game I decided I would spend some time studying ideas in the Sveshnikov. Overall I was quite satisfied with the work I had done and was eager to take another crack at the Sveshnikov. However! I arrived at the board on Tuesday, sat across from WIM Batchimeg Tuvshintugs and played 1. e4, and she somewhat surprised me with her response: 1..e5 . I can't say I was completley shocked, I have learned through experience that when you prepare a line, not only is it possible you won't face that variation, it's possible things will deviate much, much earlier. I remember one time preparing a line of the french for a game against my friend only to see 1. c4 on the first move.

So anyways I continued 2. Nf3 Nc6 3. Bb5! the first time I have played this move in over 2 years (I was U1600 the last time). 3..a6 and now I had a real decision to make. I had tossed around the idea of playing the exchange variation for a while as I think it kind of fits my style, but after doing some analysis, I wasn't completley happy with whites positions and I had thought I should abandon this for Ba4, however, I also realized here that my opponent probably had studied the main lines first (logically) and might not have gotten to the sidelines yet as she has not played 1..e5 in any recent tournament so I played 4. Bxc6!? and after about a minute, I realized that this was a great decision as she was still thinking, after about a 5 minute think she played bxc6 which is a slightly dubious move, but possibly trying to avoid my preparation. Anyways, it's curious how many decisions in this game in the first 4 moves alone were made that were not necessarily objective decisions, but instead practical decisions. Normally I try to avoid making "practical" decisions this early in the game, but it was interesting really knowing all this was happening at the board. 1.. e5, 3. Bb5 4. Bxc6 and 4.. bxc6 I would say were all "moments" during the game.

I did go on and win a spectacular (but flawed) attacking game after missing a knockout fairly early in the game. Oh well, such is chess, not all games will be perfect, but my goal is to just make fewer mistakes which I don't think I made too many of this game.

"16. Bf5 is the move of the week"

- FM Robert Hess commenting on the Becerra-Blehm game from this weeks Monday Night US Chess League matchup. We'll have to wait and see if he's correct as I've decided upon his inspiration to have my own US Chess League featured move of the week. Hopefully I can keep this exciting and it'll give me something to look forward to if nothing else every week in the US Chess League.

US Chess League Week 4 Predictions

The link above links to this weeks lineups. So here are my predictions:

Miami Sharks vs. Baltimore Kingfishers:
The Monday night matchup this week features a rematch of last year's championshp. Miami has the rating edge and the white pieces on boards 1 and 3 which should promise a solid result there and on boards 2 and 4 things are less clear. Probably Baltimore is favored on board 4, but I think things will be much closer on board 3. I think Miami definitely has the edge this week looking to make up for their slow start.
Prediction: Miami wins 2.5-1.5

Seattle Sluggers vs. Tennessee Tempo
This is a rematch of the week one route where Tennessee never seemed to get out of the starting block. I think Seattle once again has a big edge this week, but I think Tennessee is going to make a much better showing with reasonably competative matchups on all 4 boards.
Seattle wins 2.5-1.5

Dallas Destiny vs San Francisco
Another rematch of a week one division rivalry matchup. Dallas is sending out a strong lineup hoping to make up ground from their slow start. IM Friedel has the honor of taking on the black pieces on board 1 for the 3rd week in a row, but I think I will ignore rating and go with my completely unbiased opinion that San Francisco is untouchable. In fact, I think this match could certainly get ugly and San Francisco is capable of scoring on all boards.
San Francisco wins 3-1

Boston Blitz vs Philadelphia Masterminds
Perelshteyn heads a strong Boston lineup this week, but I think Philly will be surprisingly competative this week. I've been quite impressed by the play of quite a few of their players so far in the league. I'm also wondering if their first board this week was brought up as a Perelshteyn stopper. Either way, I think Boston is looking strong and I think they're favored in this match.
Boston wins 2.5-1.5

Carolina Cobras vs New York Knights
I'm going to call this the matchup of the week. Carolina coming off their first win after a slow start, New York Knights probably fuming after their crushing loss to division and classic rivals in the Boston Blitz. Unfortunatley for New York Carolina gets to grab white in the two closest matchups of the week. I'm predicting a 2.5-1.5 victory for Carolina.
Carolina wins 2.5-1.5

Overview
Mia over Bal 2.5-1.5
Sea over Tenn 2.5-1.5
SF over Dal 3-1
Bos over Phi 2.5-1.5
Car over NY 2.5-1.5

Tuesday Night Marathon Halfway update

After 4 rounds out of 8 of the Mechanics Institute Tuesday Night Marathon I'm in a 6-way tie for 1st place with 3.5/4 after a draw against FM Frank Thornally in round 4. I can't say I've been too happy with my play, I got a nice advantage out of the opening in round 4 and was unable to figure out a proper continuation from a tricky position. In round 3 I was busted in a position where I missed that my opponent could force me to sacrifice a piece for 3 pawns but then swindled out the win in an endgame where I still had the 3 pawns for the bishop.

Week 3 Prediction /Results

This weeks results (winner)
Bos v NY 3-1 (BOS)
Car v Bal 2.5-1.5 (CAR)
Mia v Tenn 3.5-.5 (MIA)
SF v Phi 2.5-1.5 (SF)
Sea v Dal 2.5-1.5 (SEA)

JG
Bos v NY +2
Car v Bal +3
Mia v Tenn +2
SF v Phi +2
Sea v Dal +0
+9

Arun
Bos v NY +0
Car v Bal +0
Mia v Tenn +2
SF v Phi +2
Sea v Dal +2
+6

Ron
Bos v NY +2
Car v Bal +0
Mia v Tenn +2
SF v Phi +3
Sea v Dal +3
+10

So Ron won this week, but the overall standings are now:
1st: Josh 20 points
2nd: Ron 13 points
3rd: Arun 9 points

Okay, so I'm no longer better than both of them combined, but they also didn't both go 1/5 this week it was going to be hard to continue. For now I still have a sizeable lead. I still don't think my predictions were terrible, in fact, I don't think I would've changed going back, well, maybe I'll have a perfect week eventually.

Almost, Almost Famous

You've heard the great news I see... I'm almost famous, almost. So I was reading some USCL news and I saw they linked to a post from the Boylston Chess Club Weblog which mentioned my powers of ESP... N-like predictions. Now if only they would just let me post straight on the USChessLeague site, then maybe I'd really be almost famous, for now I'll have to settle being where I am. Maybe my opportunity is not so far as I logged onto ICC the other day only to see "curtains" had put me on his notify list (For those of you who don't know, curtains is USCL commissioner IM Greg Shahade), but then it seems he removed me from his list without any comment. Oh well, my regular readers (Do you exist??) know that this is the only place worth coming to for US Chess League predictions, I encourage you all to check out tonight's US Chess League games and support the league.

Rest of US Chess League Predictions for 9/10

So, as a review, I predicted in my last post Boston over New York 2.5-1.5.

Now that the lineups for the other 4 matchups are online at the US Chess League website I will give the rest of my predictions with a little more inside view of my predictions.

Baltimore vs Carolina
It's feeling tough to go against Baltimore after they whooped on NY 3.5-.5 in their last week's match, but they walk out this weak with a weaker lineup. In the meantime maybe going to class is getting away in the performances on the top 3 boards for the Cobras, but I'm still going to give the edge to carolina who should be able to use the rating advantage to negate some of the unfavorable color splits that are lined up.
Carolina over Baltimore 2.5-1.5

Tennessee Tempo vs Miami Sharks
Tennessee, despite its 75 point team ratind disadvantage manages to outrate their opponents on 1 board. I'm sure Burnett could have good chances to draw Becerra on board 1 if htat was his goal, but since match points are what counts on this league my guess is he's going to push hard. White on boards 2 and 4 should work well along with their rating edge there for Miami.
Miami over Tennesee 3-1

Philadelphia Masterminds vs San Francisco Mechanics
I really like this matchup for San Francisco this week. Friedel is quite capable of defeating his lower rated opponent as black and there are also big edges for the mechanics on boards 2 and 3, board three is a much closer matchup that it would appear on paper. I know first hand that Naroditsky is a tough opponent with white. Obviously things happen over the course of a match and I'm not going to say mechanics win on all boards by any stretch. My guess is things average out a little, but don't ask me on which boards.
San Francisco over Philadelphia 3-1

Seattle Sluggers vs Dallas Destiny
Well, Serper is definitely going to have a huge edge in experience, rating, and also with the white pieces on board 1. Tangborn gets to face off against the Destiny's newest player in what I would consider to be an unfavorable matchup for him. Seattle also has a solid edge on board 3, but I'm not sure if Seattle will have the matchups to allow them to break through overall.
Seattle TIES Dallas 2-2

So as a recap for Week 3 in the USCL, my predictions are:
Bos over NY 2.5 -1.5
Car over Bal 2.5-1.5
Mia over Tenn 3-1
SF over Phi 3-1
Sea TIE Dal 2-2

I'll let you know how I do.

Monday Night.... Chess

So I must continue my impecable record for predictions. The line-ups for the Wednesday matchups are not online yet, but the Monday matchup seeds Boston against New York, truly an epic rivalry through many sports. Boston has a top-heavy line-up this week and for some reason the pundits see this as a big opportunity for Boston, but I'm a little more concerned with the rating differential on the bottom two boards. I'd say the chances of Boston breaking through on the bottom 2 boards are probably a little better than the chances of New York breaking through on the top 2 boards. I'm going to predict a 2.5-1.5 Boston victory like the pundits, but I won't be too surprised by a tie, what can I do, I must predict one result.

I out-predict the pros

So for those of you too lazy to click on the like above, here were the results:

1. Philadelphia Masterminds vs Boston Blitz Boston 2.5-1.5
2. Baltimore Kingfishers vs New York Knights Baltimore 3.5-1.5
3. Dallas Destiny vs Tennessee Tempo TIE 2-2
4. Miami Sharks vs San Francisco Mechanics San Francisco 3-1
5. Seattle Sluggers vs Carolina Cobras Seattle 3-1

And if we go through and check the scoring we see the following:

Bos vs Phi
Arun +3
Ron +3
JG +2
Bal vs NY
All +0
Dal vs Tenn
JG +3
Arun/Ron +0
Mia vs SF
JG +4
Arun/Ron +0
Sea vs Car
JG +2
Arun/Ron +0

Standings:
1st: JG 11 points
T2nd: Arun 3 points
T3rd: Ron 3 points

US Chess League Predictions

Check the link above to see some prediction race that a few US Chess League writers have been working on. If you're not familiar with the US Chess League you can check it out at http://www.uschessleague.com .

Here are their predictions, and the scoring rules for the rest of the season, I am going to see if I can top them as we all know I'm a skilled fortune teller from my US Championship Coverage. (sarcasm)

	Ron	Arun
Philadelphia vs Boston	Bos 2.5-1.5	Bos 2.5-1.5
Baltimore vs New York	NY 2.5-1.5	TIE 2-2
Dallas vs Tennessee	Ten 2.5-1.5	Ten 3-1
Miami vs San Francisco	Mia 2.5-1.5	Mia 2.5-1.5
Seattle vs Carolina	TIE 2-2	Car 2.5-1.5

Scoring works as follows:

Predictors get 2 points for each correct result (picking the correct winner or a tie)
Predictors get 1 bonus point for picking the correct score in 2.5-1.5 match or 2-2 tie
Predictors get 2 bonus points for picking the correct score in a 3-1 match (or 3.5-0.5/4-0)

So here are my predictions:
Bos over Phi 3-1
Dal tie Tenn 2-2
NY over Bal 2.5-0.5
SF over Mia 3-1
Sea over Car 2.5-1.5

Let's see if they can touch this!

Cal Chess Labor Day Championships

The result certainly wasn't great with 1.5/6 in the "master" section where I played 4 experts. I broke my new year's resolution of not accepting draws where only I was playing for a win where I took a draw thinking there was a perp for my opponent but in fact there is no perp and I'm winning. I played 4 experts who certainly did not play badly in our games and I had various interesting games. I lost many rating points, but I think the games will provide very interesting study material for myself. I also played my 3rd game in the ongoing Tuesday Night Marathon (TNM) at the mechanics institute where I pulled a swindle in a game where I was completely busted against an 1800, oh well, things like this happen, as long as I keep fighting, I'll give myself the most chances to recover. I have had a few nice swindles lately, unfortunately didn't manage to get any of those this weekend. Anyways, next week in the TNM I'll finally play up against a low master.

Rating change: 2137 -> 2116 :-(
Going to make my goals tougher.

Mechanics "FIDE" Sumer '06 Group B

So this tournament seems to have lasted forever which makes sense as it was an 11 round, round-robin event where the games where played self-scheduled. The tournament as a whole isn't quite over, but almost done, but I'm done with all my games finishing an acceptable 7/11 after a pretty disasterous start, but a strong finish. I only had 3.5/7 after my first 7 games and probably had a clearly superior position in all seven of those games at some point, but that's chess sometimes. My goal was to get 3.5/4 for my last 4 which I met after a spectacular swindle in my last game where my opponent could have sacked his knight to go into a position where I had a lone bishop vs 3 pawns and he was completely winning, but a little low on time he decided to keep his knight on the board and even up a pawn he was the one fighting for a draw which he was unable to find. I had some very interesting games this tournament and some messy ones as well. It looks as if I'll get equal 3rd at worst and probably clear 3rd which is a result I can be happy with. I don't know how happy I am with my play this tournament, I showed some nice technique in a few games, but in this last game I showed quite the opposite. In fact, looking back now, all of my wins were in endgames with 2 or fewer pieces on the board. I probably should have had one more real win, but I botched what would have been a very nice game to destroy my chance of that.

The only real "quality" I showed this tournament was my ability to convert lost positions into winning positions which is not a useless skill at all, but one I prefer not to have to use that often. Hopefully I'll continue my recent good results this weekend in the Cal Chess Labor Day State Championship tournament where I will be playing up into the "Master Section" I hope to soon be a regular part of.

Estimated Rating Change:
2134->2137

Chess Typos

So I was browsing for a moment and came across a review of a new DVD that is a repetoire for the black side of the french and then I ran across the following:


This DVD covers:

• 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.e5 c5
• 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nd2 Nf6 4.e5 Nfd7
• 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.e5 Nfd7
• 1.e4 e6 2.d4 d5 3.Nc3 Nf6 4.Bg5 Be7
• 1.e4 e6 2.exd5
• 1.e4 e6 2.Nf3 d5 3.Nc3
• 1.e4 e6 2.d3 (King’s Indian Attack)
• 1.e4 e6 2.Qe2
• 1.e4 e6 2.Nf3 d5 3.b4 (Wing Gambit)

I really hope this isn't actually on the back cover of the DVD, I hope some editor somewhere along the way would have caught this mistake, but oh well, time for me to embarass somebody anyways (Note: feel free to point out all my typos and grammatical mistakes in this blog or even in this post). I find it quite difficult for white to play 2. ed against the French, this is a serious novelty that I can honestly say I have never faced over the board. I guess it's the 2 minute gambit line or something because after 2. ed, I will stop the clock, call the director, make an illegal move claim and then have 2 extra minutes on my clock. Alright, that was definitely a little harsh, but oh well. If you want to see the site for yourself click the link on the title.

Vladimir Pufnitieff Memorial

I haven't blogged in a while, mostly due to being busy and lazier with my free time now. I've been playing pleanty of chess with mixed results. I am taking part in an ongoing tournament that hasn't been too successful, but nothing too disasterous either. This weekend's tournament went fairly well though. I played chess I could for the most part be happy with other than a silly blunder in round 3 that I recovered from to draw that game against a 2000ish player. I won rounds 1, 2, and 4 in a simply fashion I could be happy with and round 5 I drew against Batchimeg Tuvshintugs (2300ish) to tie for 2nd place overall. I was a little unhappy with my 5th round game in that I misplayed the move order and got no advantage at all. I had one opportunity later to generate some winning chances, but I guess I felt some positional pressure and decided to liquidate into an endgame (pawn down) I was pretty sure I could draw. Overall a good result.

Rating Change Estimate: 2125->2135

Charles Bagby

NONONO. That's nuff said.

2145-> ~2125

Candidates Results

I can't say the tournament went horribly, but the finish wasn't great. I beat the 2nd lowest player in the field in round one fairly routinely. In round 2 I played my good friend NM Eugene Yanayt and after I equalized as black he decided he'd had it for the day so he offered a draw and we both got to end early. In round 3 I played for the fourth time (all as white) a strong expert Craig Clawitter. In the first 3 games there had been, a dragon, a hippo, and a french. The first one I was winning I messed up and drew, the second game I didn't really get anything and the position got kind of locked up and we drew. In the third game I beat him to qualify for the state championship candidates last year (which I couldn't play in). In this game, he decided to go back to the dragon, but since then I had switched from the 9. Bc4 lines to the 9. 0-0-0 lines against the dragon. He followed with Bd7 which is played, but isn't as good against 9. 0-0-0 so I quick got a huge initiative. He wisely sacked a pawn to keep his play alive, but eventually I got a big attack and that pawn became a powerful passed pawn and in the end I managed to display some tricks to simplify and be left with a promoting pawn which was easy to mop up. In the last round, I was willing to take a draw if I got nothing from the opening (although I realized I might have missed out on qualifying by tiebreaks had this happened, but I couldn't play in the championships anyways, I'm in Hawaii at that time). So in round 4 I played strong expert (although probably now master after this result) Francis Chen and that game was an absolute disaster. I was moving a little too fast in the opening and played a slight inaccuracy that allowed him to completely equalize with maybe even a slightly better position. So I played a move which I thought allowed him to liquidate and offered a draw which I was pretty sure he would be fine with. This is true, but this move carelessly blundered a piece so he decided to take the piece instead. Quite embarassing, but still a good overall result for the tournament.

Rating Change: 2138->2145

State Championship Candidates Tournament

There's the state championship candidates tournament this weekend. It's a 4 round FIDE rated swiss event. The top 4 finishers get a spot into the the closed state championship (this event is also qualification based for that matter). It's a pretty tough field. There basically a few low rated players, a ton of experts and a few masters. I'll need to play better than I have been lately to have a chance of qualifying, but I feel up to the task and I would love to do some more damage towards my master title. I decided to give myself a new goal that's a little more ambitious than making master by the end of the year. I played my first tournament game on October 12th, 2002 so I would like to break 2200 unofficially (or officially would be fine too) by October 12th, 2005. That probably gives me a handful of tournaments between now and then, should make it attainable, but not trivial.

William Addison Open

My first tournament since moving to San Francisco was a success, kind of. I will say it's nice to be able to walk less than half a mile to a chess tournament. It turns out I can play like absolute crap and miss tactics 1600s would find and still finish with a 2500 tournament performance rating by the USCF rating calculator. I had an amazing result in this G/45 tournament scoring 4.5/5 against an average opponent rating of over 2000 and defeating 2 masters in the process. I tied for first with IM De Guzman to net a share for the 1st-2nd overall prize money. I don't know really how to feel about this tournament. I don't feel like I'm playing well at all, it was G/45 and I certainly cannot argue with the result (although I missed a win in the game I drew). Either way I still know I have significant tactical practice that needs to be done, but if I can play this badly and net a cool 20+ rating points in every tournament I'll be in healthy shape.
I have a fairly big event coming up next weekend in the SCCF state championship qualifier that I hope to do well in. Wish me luck.

Estimated Rating Change: 2111->2138 WOOHOO

Results [Updated]

Terrible, Terrible, Terrible. With no time to practice chess I guess my tactics have gotten a little rusty. So many blunders. I did manage to pull out one nice game in round 5, my only win for a total of 2/5, I should lose like 20 points or more, I don't feel like calculating it, just depressing. I'll put up the official change when it happens.

Woohoo, rating change not as bad as I thought:
2124->2110
Not pleasant, but I'll deal with it.

Round 1 Result

I lost in round 1 to GM Wojtkiewicz, I can't be too disappointed with the result. I made a few mistakes I would have liked to avoid, but I did realize this is my first ever game against a GM, so that is exciting for me. I hope to make my next one more successful. Either way, should be playing down tomorrow morning and up tomorrow evening if things go well. Hopefully I'll be reporting in with 2 more points in the tournament tomorrow night.

"Memorial" Day Classic 2006

So the "Memorial Day" tournament in LA this year is happening a week before memorial day which is , but what can I do about that. I strongly support there being a strong chess scene wherever I happen to live, but I can only do so much with no income and limited ability to attend a single tournament. I'm hoping to improve over my last result. I don't think this should be too big of a problem since last time I think in addition to not playing well I also ran into some bad luck. I only played close opposition in 2 rounds both were with black and I didn't otherwise get a chance to prove myself. Wish me luck!

Kamsky leads in Sofia

I don't have time for a long post right now, but Kamsky's results so far have been spectacular. He has beaten everyone in the field minus Topalov once and his only loss was at Topalov's hands who is 1.5 points behind him. Anand is in 2nd a full point behind and there have been many interesting games. I haven't had much time to study chess or blog recently due to school and Ditch Day activities (Ditch Day is a tradition at Caltech). Ditch Day happened on Wednesday so as soon as I get caught up in school I should be fine otherwise.

Tournament Results

I had a bad tournament this weekend. I won all my games playing down, but I was playing way down, and I lost 2 games playing up and even where the up was not by much. What can I do?
Rating change estimate: 2036->2024

Weekend Tournament: Los Angeles County Open 2006

The posts have been pretty scarce lately, I'm trying to make sure I graduate on time. However, I can't miss the opportunity to play a decent weekend event so I'll be driving the 15 minutes to the Los Angeles County Open in Monterey Park. It's not my favorite format with the one, large open section and the first day when I'll be looking for my big upset is 30/90 SD/30. I'll hopefully make a couple of updates this weekend of a positive result.

Mechanics Chess Club

I was up in San Francisco on Monday for a job interview (which I think went well) so I decided in the time I had before I had to leave for my flight I'd pop into the Mechanics Chess Club. It's a very nice club, not a whole lot of people around in the middle of the afternoon, but they had a very nice setup and if I end up living in the area I look forward to playing there.
Also, I don't know if Mechanics US Chess League is looking for an improving expert to play on board 4 in some matches or just to have on their roster, but if someone reading this knows tell them I'm interested :-).

Chess Books

I figured things have been rather quiet lately here so I decided to talk about a few books I have been going through recently and books I've finished recently.

Excelling at Chess Calculation by Aagaard
I really like this book, there are some very interesting problems and it really does give ideas on how to improve your calculation and things to be weary of while calculating. I've actually read through it once before, but reading it now it's obvious my first reading wasn't too attentive. I'm not sure how much of this book is easy to pick up, most of it needs to be done through practice which it doesn't necessarily provide on it's own, but it does give suggestions for organization of thought.

Chess Self-Improvement by Zenon Franco
This book has a pretty cool cover and the first time I heard of it I thought it was pretty dorky and that the book wouldn't be of much interest to me. Actually this is an interesting book and if you spend the time to really go through the games with serious concentration you can gain a lot. I feel like if you spend the effort this is as closed to a simulated game environment you can probably get. The moves he asks you to try to figure out vary in difficulty and the points are awarded in various fashions. I will note, don't even both with this book if you plan on just skimming through it, that's a waste of your time.

School of Chess Excellence 1: Endgame Analysis by Dvoretsky
I bought this book really recently and have just started working through it, but it seems very good so far and is much more theoretically based than the bulk of Dvoretsky's other work Dvoretsky's Endgame Manual. Here a lot of time is spent talking about playable positions and I feel like I will be able to learn a lot from this book. He goes over some very tough endgame positions from real games, often times where players had hours to analyze in adjournment.

Chess for Zebras by Rowson
A good deal of the book so far is spent presenting information from Seven Deadly Chess Sins in a different manner, but a lot of it is spent on chess improvement. I don't know how particularly relevant it is to me now in this manner, but after reading a review of this book and browsing through it I decided it was certainly worthwhile. His writing style is very candid and always enjoyable. It's certainly one of those books I could work through, not absorb anything and still enjoy it.

On the shoulders of giants...

One of my favorite quotes:

“If I have seen farther than others, it is because I was standing on the shoulders of giants.” - Sir Isaac Newton

To me I always find it strange when people refuse to study openings because they claim it's just wrote memorization. And to be fair, there is some memorization involved, but I think far less if you do it right. Let's make a quick mention of a very popular opening, the Najdorf. After 1. e4 c5 2. Nf3 d6 3. d4 cd 4. Nd4 Nf6 5. Nc3 black plays 5.. a6!? This is one of a few moves available to black in the position, but why when black has only one piece developed is he playing this move a6? It somewhat violates many opening principles. It doesn't develop a piece or really even prepare to develop a piece. Nb5 isn't exactly threatened in the position although if black intends to follow up with e5 in some variations this square is protected. However, if we look in many Sicilian lines, Nb5 or Bb5 even when they're sacrifices are important ideas, but certainly time can be taken out to play this a6 later if it can be done now, right??? Well, black is making a useful move that he will almost certainly have to play later in order to see what white does next and also prepares some moves that he will not necessarily play. For example, black would love to play 5.. e5 without including a6 if it weren't for the problem of Bb5+ now white can go to f5 either after 6.. Bd7 7. Bd7+ 8. Nf5 or just 6.. Nbd7 7. Nf5. I'm sure 90% of the players who play the Najdorf below probably 1800 don't even know why a6 is the move there when there is a simple reason that is much easier to remember than the move itself. I think for the most part if you really understand and opening when you encounter a new theoretical move you will understand the logic of it. If you find yourself uncomfortable when your opponents play strange moves in your pet lines, it's probably time you took your pet opening out for a walk in the park to see what's really going on.

Western Pacific Open Results! (Updated)

I had a solid performance this tournament. Not necessarily a performance I dream of, but it was close.

In round 1 I played the top seed from the 3-day schedule as I predicted, IM Timothy Taylor. I actually got a strategically complicated position against him and was doing find pretty much the whole game, I was even slightly better for a while, but eventually I just miscalculated and collapsed.

In round 2 I play an unrated who gave me a scare when I overlooked a trick he had, but then I realized that this was not a trick at all as it dropped his queen, I wasn't feeling in the best form for this game, but I won fairly quickly and even mated in the endgame with most of the pieces on the board.

In round 3 I played NM Ilya Serpik who I have faced now for the 3rd time going into this game my record against him was 1-0-1 and we have even played some blitz in between rounds so I was feeling good. He played some offbeat line and I got a very nice position out of the opening with black. I actually threw away most of the edge I got by not spending enough time on some of my moves, but I still got a position with good pressure. He blundered shortly after and I converted no problem.

In round 4 I played NM Gregg Small with white. We reached a very complicated position in the middle game which I decided to show:
White to move
So, I might not have chosen the best continuation here, but I think I found a strong idea. Here I played Nb2!? (The whole point of the maneuver I had made from c3 to d1 was to go to c4). I was showing this game to some friends and they have the nerve to criticize this move which I believe I have full compensation if he takes the exchange which he didn't. I probably could've played Be1 first preparing the same idea, but this was still fine. The line I calculated was 19..Nf2+ 20. Rf2 Bf2 21. Nc4 Qa7 (forced) 22. Rf1 Bc5 here I stopped feeling that if nothing else I would have Qg3 Rdg8 Qh4 with some serious compensation, but in fact, I have a knockout that I couldn't calculate all the way in advance, but looked dangerous. 23. Ne5! fe 24. f6 Kd6 (forced or it's basically mate) 25. fg Rhg8 (or Rhe8 Bg5 with a strong attack) 26. Bc4! and the pawn is immune due to Qf6+ 26.. Kc7 27. Bg8 Rg8 28. Qh5 and white has 3 pawns for the sacrificed piece and a continue attack +/-.

Unfortunately for me, things did not end so brilliantly in the game. My opponent wisely declined the exchange and instead played Be8 after which he eventually broke though at the wrong moment which lost a pawn in a position where I was up a pawn and had a better position. Unfortunately in some mutual time trouble (although his was worse) I fell for his last trick in the position which gave him a slightly better endgame which he ground down very well.

In round 5 I got what I deserved for failing to convert my won position in round 4, I was paired against a 1475 player. I won quickly, but I gained (almost) nothing from the game. It did however bring me up to 3/5 which through some miraculous series of events allowed me to qualify for the state championship candidate tournament in June. I'm looking forward to that and I'm hoping to be able to qualify for the state championship there.

Estimated rating change 2129->2135, not bad, I'll be hoping to be doing some more damage in upcoming events. (Note, had I won my 4th game, it would've been another 12 points gained regardless of my result last round against the IM I would've been paired against)

Rating Change Actually: 2129-2137 due to unrated finishing 1900 instead of expected 1800

Weekend Tournament: Western Pacific Open

I'll be driving down towards LAX later today to play in round 1 of the Western Pacific Open. If the pre-entries are reliable (I have multiple reasons to believe they are not) then I'll be playing IM Timothy Taylor in the 1st round. I've lost to him twice including one major blunder in the opening which caused me to resign on move 8. Since I've never scalped an IM, I would love to make this my first. I'm feeling pretty well prepared for this tournament as a whole. I had one disappointing game recently, but I believe as a whole I played well that game and I've been doing a lot of tactical exercizes since then to try to build my awareness. Anyways, if I have some nice results I'll be sure to keep you posted.

Gambits Part 5: Another Marshall Gambit

This is definitely the most famous of Frank Marshall's gambits and probably currently the most theoretically important. I have found only one game between masters so far in 2006 where white dared to allow the Marshall, but at top levels anti-marshall systems haven't been yielding much of an advantage if any for white, they're just less worked out. Here is the critical diagram after black's 9.. d5

I've included pleanty of my personal views and explanations here.

Gambits Part 4: Marshall Gambit in the semi-slav

When you hear the words "Marshall Gambit" you're probably thinking of a position that arises from the Ruy Lopez, but the truth is that Frank Marshall was responsible for a handful of gambit openings that are still employed at the highest level of chess today with incredible soundness and strength. Here I have started within his gambits with the Marshall gambit against the semi-slav

I have provided some analysis mostly covering a recent game Aronian-Vallejo Pons but also talking a little bit about some ideas. Not the normal ideas I usually like to provide, but this line is very theoretical and I'm not trying to turn this into a theoretical survey. Check here for my analysis.

Gambits: Part 3 - The Reversed Halloween Gambit

Some of you are probably asking how much time I plan on wasting with piece sacrificed right from the opening. Well, I think this time you might be surprised by how sound this opening is.
I think this is a good lesson on tempi. Sometimes it's important that the move you make is a good move. For example, some players play the exchange french hoping to make use of their extra tempo. Making use of an extra tempo can be difficult without giving your opponent an opportunity to take advantage of your move. If you don't know what I'm talking about then you can compare the analysis to the reverse gambit to the analysis of the Halloween Gambit itself.

Playoff Results

Well, overall I think I played well today. In the first game I was killing my opponent but since a draw sealed the match for us I took a repetition. In the second game I also had a clear advantage, at least +/- and missing moves that would've made it +-, but instead first I missed tactics that let me get material to go with my positional advantage. I then blundered and was down a pawn with some drawing chances (which would have drawn the match). Then I found a nice trick to win an exchange for another pawn which in the endgame gave me great chances to draw, but unfortunately with only 2 minutes to play it out I couldn't hold. I'm not happy with my results as a win from me would've won the match. Oh well, what can I do now. Back to hours of CT art for "punishment".

Amateur Team Playoffs

So the details are all finalized for the Amateur Team Playoffs. Our team will be playing the winning team from Midwest regional start at 10:00 am on Sunday. We have white on first board so I will be playing black. The whole thing will be taking place on ICC and there will be TDs at every playing site. At the same time South will be playing East also with white on first board. The winners of the two matches will play eachother starting at 3pm both times are Pacific time. A lot of luck is required in these events, not so much in strength of play, but coordination of strenght of play. Wish us luck!

A Lesson in Defense

I was doing some analysis and I reached the following position WHITE TO MOVE:


You probably need to stare at this position to figure out what's going on. Currently black has a serious threat of Bd6 winning on the spot. There are a few moves that come to mind to try to defend against it. Obviously white must move his f-rook, but only one square works, can you figure it out? Don't just stop at the first move, think of critical variations, even after the correct response (or incorrect responses) white still must find some tricky moves. I'll leave this to ponder for a couple of days. Your choice between Rfb1, Rfc1, Rfd1, and Rfe1.

Gambits: Part 2 -The Elephant Gambit

The Elephant Gambit:


So I had been kind of lazy about putting up a post and my friend Mike Zaloznyy a one time player of the Elephant Gambit suggested that I make it the next gambit in my series. Honestly, this gambit does not particularly impress me, but some of the ideas that occur within some variations are quite nice and I think it's an important opening to understand before I can later talk about the Marshall Gambit which also involved a d5 push that sacrifices a pawn. I hope you enjoy my analysis.

Gambits: Part 1 the Halloween Gambit

The Halloween Gambit:


I decided to start my series with a gambit that unlike traditional gambits which sacrifice pawns, starts out by sacrificing a whole piece. I think this gambit is particularly confrontational even at an early stage which makes it kind of exciting. Probably most players will see it and compare it to a gambit that doesn't have really any merit like the "Fred gambit" after 1. e4 f5 2. ef g6, but I think white has some obvious compensation that is likely just inadequate. This I didn't feel like going into too much detail, but I did give a sample line just to give a feel. You can check that out here.

Gambits: Part 0

I thought of an interesting idea for some posts and also for my chess development. My idea is to have a series going where I discuss a few more mainstream gambits that are quite common at the club level. I will also be throwing in some discussions of gambits that have seen some time in Super-GM games. I’ll also be discussing gambits that are mainlines such as the Chatard-Alekhine gambit against the classical French or the Marshall Gambits both against the semi-slav and on the black side of the Ruy Lopez. I don't know how many of these I'll get through before I'm tired of them, but if you have any suggestions on where I should start, I'm willing to listen.

So what's the point? Well, I think at high level chess quite often battles are fought just to get the initiative. While gambits for the most part artificially achieve this (by sacrificing one or more pawns), it's worth trying to figure out the differences between those gambits that are mainlines (i.e. Marshall Gambit) and those gambits that are rare in master games (i.e. Blackmar Diemer). I'm most curious in studying some key positions, not necessarily theoretical, where it seems that 1) the initiative is too small, 2) the initiative is in balance with the pawn or pawns, or 3) the initiative is enough to give an advantage despite being down material.

Board Visualization and Blindfold chess

I've been absent from posting for a couple of days now. I'm on break from school for a week so I'm trying to take a little break from almost everything in my life. There are two major tournaments going on, one of which is a blindfold/rapid tournament taking place is Monaco. I think blindfold chess is one of those things that a layperson might think of as some kind of circus trick. However I think a person's ability to calculate accurately and a person's ability to play blindfold. I feel the more I have forced myself to analyze in my head the more I've seen an improved accuracy in my calculations.

Even just thinking back to 8 months ago, I would much more often in my calculation think a piece was still on a square it had already moved from hence miscalculating the whole variation. I'll admit, I still sometimes have this problem, but I've gained experience and hence catch myself when I'm doing it most of the time. I can play a blindfold game with some of my friends even at blitz time control but quite often the game ends to blunders I would never make with a board in front of me. I realize my ability to visualize will improve over time, but I think it's important to realize the connection.

The question of course then becomes how to improve visualization. Just playing games of chess does this. There are also exercises that can be done to help improve visualization. One I would like to highly recommend is outlined in an article on Chess Café by NM Dan Heisman and can be found among his archives here, but unfortunately I forgot which article it is. They are all very good articles so you won’t waste your time looking through them. I’ve also seen suggested chess mazes to quickly be able to visualize the patterns which pieces move. One I personally do is when I’m reading a chess book or magazine quite often it will spit out many moves in a row without a diagram. Rather than succumb to the urge to grab a chessboard, I try to walk through the moves slowly and I try to get a clear picture of the position in my mind as I move through and try not to make more moves on the board until I do. A good way to test your visualization of a position is to ask questions about why some “obvious looking” moves weren’t played. If anybody else has some good ideas I would love to hear about them in the comments.

Octos Results

Well, I have a very successful tournament today. My first game I won a game against Danyul Lawrence (2037) where I got a little lucky his attack didn't work out. In the second game I was pair as white against Ilya Serpik (2311) who I actually had a 1-0 record against having black that game. This time I had white. I was clearly better out of the opening so he offered me a draw on move 10 and like a wuss, I accepted a draw since I was playing 200 points up and it was still far from a guaranteed win. Last round I was paired against a good friend Mike Zaloznyy who was in bad form this tournament and that bad form continued against me as he dropped a piece right out of the opening on the white side of a french exchange. To be fair, my position was already preferable, but it was still quite helpful.

After this tournament I'm expecting to gain between 16 and 19 points. I estimate I'll be 2128 after this tournament. 17 more points towards masterdom. Makes sense as I had a 2456!!!!! performance rating.

Chess Tournament

I have my first tournament since the creation of this blog. I'm playing in the Costa Mesa Octos this weekend. Normally I try to avoid one-day tournaments as I'm trying to train myself to take more time and faster time control tournaments can screw this up a bit. Also this is a bit of drive for a one-day tournament, but the tournament scene in Southern California has been suffering a little bit so there aren't as many two-day tournaments. A friend of mine made a little bit of an effort to get a few stronger players to come out to this event. Looks like there are going to be like 4 or 5 solid experts and a couple of masters. I'll post an update to track my results.

Pawn Endgame Solution

You might remember my earlier post about a pawn endgame I had in a recent tournament against a friend of mine. Well, I forgot about it for a few days and I still had to clean up my analysis, but finally it's up. I think it's a fairly principled position, but execution in these endgames can be tough. I missed my chance to win, hopefully you didn't miss it. Check out the solution here.

Chess, Poker, and Procrastination

So it seems quite a few chess players are busy these days playing poker. My friend NM Eugene Yanayt is on a poker cruise right now having qualified for it on party poker. I talked to him online today and he mentioned there were a couple of GMs in the tournament. Apparently Walter Browne and Jan Gustafsson a 2600 from Germany are on the cruise. I asked him to challenge them to a side game of blitz, but he said the only set on the ship was a big one by the hot tub where the pawns were just small bishops. I personally used to play a bit of poker myself. I gave it up because I was falling behind in school and didn't want to give up chess, but quite a few people seem to make the other choice.

Both of these activities can suck up a good deal of your time if you're not careful. I'm generally of the opinion that any time spent on chess cannot be a waste, but sometimes things get put off until the last minute that would be better done at an earlier time. However, some people ask me where in my busy schedule I find time to study as much chess as I do and the simple answer is procrastination. When I'm not doing my homework, essay, or exam, I can be studying chess. I think it's quite effective, a lot better use of time than my former marathons of staring at the wall.

Tactics vs. calculation

I think this is an interesting issue I don't appreciate often enough. Quite often I do endgame studies and tactical exercises. I find the latter quite easy and the former a bit more difficult. Tactical exercises have their own set of themes and endgame studies have their own set of themes, but tactics train real game situations whereas endgame studies are mostly just about calculation. I noticed in some of my games how easy it is when I have a strong positional bind to get confused while looking for tactics. For example, in the recent Amateur Team West tournament I arrived at the following position against a weak expert as black with my move:
So my opponent just play Nb1-a3 which really should have signaled something. I was kind of annoyed by this move but not too worried as his hole on c4 was already giving me a nice positional edge. However, had I spotted 1...Bxe2! I would have had both a material edge and a positional advantage. This really shouldn't be that hard for me to spot and I can't come up with any reasonable excuse for not seeing it. The bottom line is I need to be more aware of knockouts like this since I quite often develop a positional advantage but if I don't see shots like this I might throw away half points sometimes. Fortunately in this game I went on to get the full point, not without allowing a little bit of complication on the board though.

New US Champions

ONISCHUK IS THE NEW US CHAMPION.

Onischuk won the rapid games for the title and the extra $8,000. Both games were complicated: the first one ended in a drawn opposite color bishop endgame that fortunately Onischuk did not try to win on the delay. The second game was even more complicated than the first with a massive struggle on the board. Both sides missed key opportunities, it could have been much more interested to see this game at classical time controls as there were many missed moves, but both sides showed their strength in defending brilliantly even with little time on the clock. I have made some notes to the second decisive game here. Congratulations to the new US champion and I would like to congratulate Shulman and the rest of the field for their fighting spirit this year.

ZATONSKIH IS THE NEW WOMENS US CHAMPION.
Zatonskih outplayed Goletiani in the rapid matches to become the new US Champion. I slept in a bit so I did not get a chance to see these games live, but both were exciting. After winning the first game as black Zatonskih put herself in a very good position to become the new champion. The second game was pretty sharp as well, but Zatonskih found a way to force a draw which would seal the championship and took it. Congratulations to the new champion.

US Championship Round 9: Results

Round 9 brought a lot of excitement. There were quite a few players chasing norms and tough fights on the top boards. Nakamura looked like he was just worse against Onischuk then exploded with b5 with a dangerous looking attack. Onischuk showed his defensive genius and held on. Nakamura took his typical risks to push in but in the end the game was just a draw. Shulman looked like he was slightly worse out of the opening but seemed to have moves that looked like they would equalize. He didn't play them and soon found himself the victim of a huge initiative. Even after all this drama it will still be a Onischuk vs Shulman in the rapid playoffs. In the women’s group it ended up being Zatonskih vs Goletiani. All of these should be exciting.

There were quite a few norms achieved this year. Friedel made his 2nd GM norm, Tuvshintugs made a WGM norm despite losing her last four games in a row which just shows how impressive her first five rounds were, and Goletiani made an IM norm. Congratulations to all of these players for their impressive results. Between this result and the result from Friedel's last GM norm he should be pushing the 2500 mark soon.

So my predictions were pretty terrible today with a spectacular 1/6. Oh well, I guarantee you I won't be able to miss this many tomorrow. So the playoffs I think actually will favor Shulman. His rapid ability was shown to be pretty good in the World Cup so my money is on him to take it. This is definitely the underdog, but I like to root for the underdog. As for the women's playoff I think Zatonskih will take this. Goletiani is the defending champion but Zatonskih I think is a significantly stronger player and really just got unlucky last year by having tougher last round pairings allowing Goletiani and Abrahamyan to pass her while she played a tough GM in the last round.

Chess Club and US Champs all rolled into one

So the reason why I'm posting so late is because I had a bit to drink, went to chess club, had some more to drink, hung out with some friends for a while and just got home. I think when people think of "going to Caltech to play chess" they think of far more scholarly events than this pretends to be. Anyways, US Chess Championship updates.

The top boards in both sections drew. Nakamura won a strange game against Gurevich. Ibragimov beat Friedel very technically and Christiansen beat Perelshteyn. What does this mean as a whole? This means that going into the final rounds it is very likely that Onischuk and Shulman will be their respective group winners, I have no idea who is a better rapid chess player and am quite disappointed that I should care.

I'm too tired to round up the results completely, just look at them at the site, I've linked there, sorry, big one time slip.

Predictions:
So yesterday I had my very typical 3/6 although I should've been able to do much better. Oh well, solid mediocrity is worth something I think. Anyways, here's my predictions for tomorrow, my guess is that about 1/2 of them will be correct.

Group A:

GM Onischuk - GM Nakamura 1-0
I know this may sound like an absurd prediction being that Onischuk only needs a draw, but I could see Nakamura pushing WAAAAAAY to hard in a game like this. I know Nakamura is a great fighter, but sometimes discretion is the greater part of valor.

GM Akobian - GM Ibragimov 1/2
This is actually quite an important game, Ibragimov could potentially beat Onischuk on tiebreaks if he loses, but I think that this will be a very tough game for either side to win. Both players are doing well and I believe this will just peter out.

GM Stripunsky - GM Goldin 1-0
Stripunsky is pretty clutch if you can remember his last round victory in last year's US Championship. I may have doubted him at the beginning, but I really think this guy is incredibly tough to face in a practical game. He may play offbeat stuff, but it's all sound, just the not the most critical lines.

Group B:

GM Fishbein - GM Shulman 1/2-1/2
Since Shulman has played everyone remotely close in score to him he is now playing a point and a half down against a player who doesn't need to win as badly as he needs to not lose. I don't see any reason Shulman won't be able to draw this, he's clearly in great form.

GM Kamsky - GM Shabalov 1/2-1/2
I think this will be a very tense battle, but I think as both of these players sense that Board 1 is not going to be decisive they'll just take the GMs favorite results and enjoy a few drinks at the bar.

GM Yermolinsky - GM Christiansen 1/2-1/2
Okay, maybe it's absurd to predict 4 draws in the 6 most important games of the tournament, but I did so live with it. I think these two experienced players will both be playing fine chess, there might even be a good fight, but chess is probably a draw so this game might be too. Yea, I know these are lazy explanations, but I'm REALLY tired.

Good luck to all norm possible players in the last round, I don't know who is in contention, but that might show up tomorrow on the website hopefully. Goodnight.

Traditions

My house (not a fraternity, but similar) has a tradition of going to the center of campus and drinking champagne at the end of every term which I just came back from. Tradition is something I'd like to talk about. The tradition of the US Championship used to be two round robins of which the winners would play a match. The format more recently changed to a 64 player format and a giant swiss. For financial reasons this was probably a good decision, but this year's event has problems that I believe completely outweigh any financial benefits that could've come from forcing a rapid playoff. Let us look at one example: Let's say Zatonskih won her group and a man won the other group. Zatonskih would then play the playoff for the overall championship, but due to the format if she lost that match she would not even be the women’s champion when potentially the girl that scored fewer points than her in the same group could hold the title. The fact that this is possible shows that there is a flaw in the current system beyond the fact that the title will be determined in rapid chess.
I realize having a rapid chess playoff is exciting for the fans, but this is a ridiculous system. This is equivalent to having the basketball playoffs played out normally until the finals, but then instead of the finals having a slam dunk contest to decide the championship. I realize that a lot of people would find this very entertaining but I think as a whole this would be bad for the sport and I think as a whole this format is bad for chess in the US.

US Championship Round 7: Results / Round 8: Preview

Today had a lot of exciting games and lots of decisive results. Only 8 draws in 32 total games. The group leaders both won their respective games and now Onischuk and Shulman lead their groups by a full point both playing the only player within 1 point of them in round 8. This means that both have an opportunity to clinch 1st with wins (although 2 draws will do it also). Both of these leaders played convincingly in their victories.
In board 2 of group A Southern California player Varuzhan Akobian managed to win a lost rook and pawn endgame, now that's technique! Friedel beat Dlugy in a nice game to make amends for his loss yesterday which now puts him back into that group tied for 3rd. Nakamura is trying to continue his comeback with a win this round over GM De Firmian in typical Nakamura fashion. He got a bad position from the opening but continued to move quickly and put a lot of pressure on De Firmian who fell apart in time trouble.
Probably craziest game of the round was Kamsky's win over Novikov. It was a Bg5 Najdorf that got into an endgame where Kamsky was trying to make good with his Q+N vs Q+B. On move 41 Novikov sacrficed his bishop for a dangerous passed pawn and then won another pawn which was captured on move 44 in the process leaving him with a queen plus three pawns versus Kamsky's queen, knight, and 1 pawn. Kamsky couldn't trade queens under any condition to win and really pressed hard trying to win something delightful to see from Kamsky this tournament. So Kamsky was finally successful in breaking through, but he was going to have a problem due to the 50 move rule, but on move 92 Kamsky finally broke through with a move that would allow a queen trade on the following move into a winning queen endgame. It came down to one of the last possible moves for him to win.

Standings:

Group A: Onsichuk(6), Akobian (5), 7 others (4.5)
womens: Goletiani(3.5), Baginskaite, Ross, Zenyuk (3)

Group B: Shulman (6), Kamsky (5), Novikov, Christiansen, Perelshteyn, Fishbein, Yermolinsky (4.5)

Exciting results this round, I managed to predict 3/6 results correct this round, but the ones I got wrong all ended under very strange circumstances just to tease me. Anyways my predictions for this round are:

Group A:

GM Akobian - GM Onischuk 1/2-1/2
I think stylistically Akobian will have a tough time against Onischuk just because Onischuk is the stronger player and their play is pretty similar. I really think this game has the possibility for all 3 results due to how important a win is for Akobian.

GM Nakamura - GM Gurevich 1-0
Nakamura played very well in his last game and I'm sure has gotten a lot of his confidence back so I expect him to be in proper form to beat Gurevich. I have warned myself not to doubt Gurevich in earlier rounds, but I think this result is my best prediction. However, I think the chance of Nakamura winning Group A are essentially nil. Since Onischuk has been leading the whole time even .5/2 in the last 2 rounds will probably seal him first on tiebreaks assuming he doesn't lose to Akobian. Of course if Onischuk does lose to Akobian then for Nakamura to win on tiebreaks would probably require none of the other 4.5s to finish with 6.5 which is possible, but would probably require a lot of luck as there is at least one more possible. But Nakamura is NOT mathematically eliminated just damn close.

GM Ibragimov - IM Friedel 0-1
This prediction is not based on my feeling that Friedel is better than Ibragimov more that it seemed in the last round that Ibragimov is getting tired over the course of a long event. This was probably the reason for his failure to convert in the last round of last year's US Championship and this year there were far fewer rest days. Josh has been fighting hard, it wouldn't be completely inconceivable to see a draw here, but I think he'll have a good shot for the full point.

Group B:

GM Shulman - GM Kamsky 1/2-1/2
I DO expect Kamsky to be pushing for the full point, but I think if Shulman were going to collapse it would've been last round. Kamsky has only one win with black so far and I expect this trend to continue. Shulman has especially strong interest in drawing here as it will likely lock up the group on tiebreaks.

GM Fishbein - GM Novikov 0-1
I can't imagine Novikov is happy with his loss last round and otherwise seems to be in good form. I think he'll come out in round 8 with a taste for blood. Let's also not forget that while Fishbein has the same score he doesn't have a single win against a player with a plus score and only one draw in that group.

GM Christiansen - IM Perelshteyn 1/2-1/2
I heard that for the first time in a few years Christiansen actually analyzed before this event which explains his results so far, but Perelshteyn's only loss is to Ivanov so his preparation is also looking pretty good. I expect Christiansen to fight hard, but in the end a draw is what I expect.

Round 6 Results / Round 7 Predictions

Unfortunately due to having a presentation and a biology assignment due tomorrow much like last night there will be no games again although I might cover some of the exciting ones in a later update who knows. Anyways for this round there were quite a few surprising results. For one Onischuk won from what looked like an inferior position. Kudrin then liquidated to a rook endgame where he was up a pawn, but in serious trouble. Onischuk showed his technique to convert for the full point. That coupled with a draw by Gurevich puts him back in clear first. Schneider also beat Friedel to join the tie for second place. On lower boards Nakamura continued his winning ways over Goletiani trying to mount a comeback and Elizabeth Vicary scored an impressive win over Igor Schneider.
In group B there weren't too many surprises at the top other than Novikov beating Shabalov very nicely to land in clear second place having already played Shulman. Going down to lower boards Abrahamyan beat Muhammad to join Zatonskih for second place for the women in group B. Tuvshintugs lost to Kamsky but due to her previous huge lead still is in clear first in the womens race.

Standings:

Group A:
1st: Onischuk (5)
2nd: Gurevich, Schneider (4.5)
4th-7th: Ibragimov, Akobian, Stripunsky, de Firmian (4)

Womens: Goletiani (3), Vicary (2.5)

Group B:
1st: Shulman (5)
2nd: Novikov (4.5)
3rd-4th: Kamsky, Christiansen

Womens: Tuvshintugs(3.5), Zatoniskih, Abrahamyan (3)

So there are some close races with just three rounds remaining.

So my predictions fell to 2/6 today, but that's about what's expected. My overall record is 16/36. For tomorrow:
Group A:

GM Onischuk - IM Schneider 1-0
I think Onischuk will be pressing pretty hard to win this game against a less-experienced opponent knowing that there are quite a few people in hot pursuit of him. Onischuk does have white so he will probably aiming for a position where he can play for a win with little risk. The last two times these two players met it was a draw which I think just gives Onischuk that much more reason to try to prove something with a win.

GM Gurevich - GM Akobian 1/2-1/2
Both of these players have been doing well, but I expect a solid game where neither will have particularly great chances to win.

GM Stripunsky - GM Ibragimov 0-1
This will probably be some kind of KIA French where I expect Ibragimov will get a good chance to show his class. Ibragimov's preparation actually looks pretty good and his only loss was just a blunder which I don't think has reflected his overall form.

Group B:
GM Shulman - GM Kaidanov 1-0
Shulman is playing down 1.5 points in terms of tournament score which indicates to me that especially with white he will be in very good shape to try to win and maintain his lead. This is especially important due to the format of the tournament where he may wish to be able to take a draw in the later rounds to conserve his energy for a potential playoff.

GM Kamsky - GM Novikov 1/2-1/2
Kamsky has been playing peacefully since the first round except in the game where he has been playing 400 points down so I don't see why that trend should stop here. It's not impossible that he start to try to find more winning chances, but even a draw here will almost guarantee a game against Shulman next round which is really the game he needs to win to have a shot.

GM Gulko - GM Christiansen 1/2-1/2
If there were days off every three days this is where it would land so I expect some players to take a day off anyways. I expect a draw right around 30 moves as Christiansen has looked very solid so far anyways.

US Champ Round 5: Recap / Round 6 predictions

This round had some fun upsets worth mentioning. Tuvshintugs scalped Becerra as black for her 3rd GM scalp of the tournament. Notice her only loss of the tournament is to Shulman who is in clear first, seems to be a breakout tournament for her. If she nets a few more point she'll be in good shape for a WGM norm or better. Friedel continued his undefeated streak by drawing from a better position against Stripunsky, I might take a look at that game later. Bercy's lost to Kudrin in a tough game, he was completely winning at some point, but then lost the game in time trouble, I might also take a look at that game. Nakamura won again showing he will be able to put pressure on the leaders if they keep drawing (although even if he ties his tiebreaks will be terrible).

This round did not see too much change among the leaders. The key difference was that with Shulman's win as black he also gained another half point on the field in group B. So here are the standings in the two groups:
Group A:
1st: Onischuk, Gurevich (4.0/5)
3rd: Schneider, De Firmian, Friedel, Kudrin (3.5/5)

Womens: Goletiani (3) with her trailiers having only 2 points

Group B:
1st: Shulman (4.5/5)
2nd: Novikov, Christiansen, Shabalov, Tuvshintugs(w) (3.5)

Womens: Tuvshintugs (obviously) with Zatonskih at 3 and other women at 2 or less.

Now let’s move onto my predictions. I realize this is all a little bit silly, but it does force me to look at a couple of games by these players which can't be bad. Yesterday I scored 3/6 again which I consider to be reasonable success (as once again, there are THREE results). This brings my overall record to 14/30; I hope to improve upon this today.

Group A:

GM Kudrin - GM Onischuk 1/2-1/2
So Kudrin can go into the Ruy Lopez and he can also play the Gioco Piano, my bet is on the latter but I imagine it will be a close call. I expect his preparation to be good since he's been playing this line for a while, but at the same time this line tends to be a little drawish and I don't expect Onischuk to push too hard as black, but again I could be wrong.

GM Gurevich - GM De Firmian 1-0
Gurervich is playing quite well, I am no longer going to doubt his play. De Firmian is also playing well, but seems to be having a little more trouble than Gurevich. He was likely dead lost last round against Schneider as black in a very popular line which suggests his preparation is not as good as it should be.

IM Schneider - IM Friedel 0-1
It's a little weird that these two both have the same color they had in round 5, but it's probably because one or both of them was forced not to alternate in a previous round. I'm not sure what type of Ruy Lopez Josh will pick. These two have an even record (1-1) against eachother, but Josh had black both times and they were 2 different lines of the Ruy Lopez and the one Josh won was the archangel so I wouldn't be surprised to see him go back to that. Either way while both of these young players have had good results Josh seems to be in significantly better form so I give the edge to him.

Group B:

GM Christiansen - GM Shulman 1/2-1/2
This is an interesting situation. Christiansen has white so it would seem ready for him to win again, but Shulman seems playing well. Christiansen has also been playing the Tarrasch against the French lately which is exactly the line Shulman played against last round. I think Christiansen plays these fairly modern lines with Ngf3 so I don't know what to expect and when in doubt I'll pick draw. I'm sorry for the copout, but I don't know what else to do. This is also an important game for Shulman as Christiansen is the only player tied for 2nd he hasn't played, if he can keep a half or full point lead with no direct matchups left against his followers he'll be in a really good position.

GM Novikov - GM Shabalov 0-1
Shabalov is actually having a pretty good tournament. His game against Shulman was pretty wild and unclear which was the only game he lost. I predict he will keep up his good play and win.

WFM Tuvshintugs - GM Kamsky 0-1
Kamsky may have draws in his last 4 games, but he is playing 450 points down. I realize Tuvshintugs is obviously playing well and I would like to see her continue, I still think Kamsky will win this, even as black.

Pawn Endgames

Pawn endgames occur pretty rarely in practice (2.87% of all games according to Fundamental Chess Endings by Müller and Lamprecht), however they are very important to study for two different reasons:

1) They are good positions to study to help to work on calculation (as I've heard from my coach and various other sources).
2) You might need to calculate them while making decisions as to whether or not the pawn endgame is good or at least okay in other endgames such as rook endgames (which occur in occur in 8.5% of all games) or rook + minor piece endgames (which occur in 15% of games).

Studying endgames is something I don't think I've done properly up until now. I think my judgment of such endgames is normally pretty good, but I find I have to work very hard while playing minor piece and pawn endgames. This is important as my play in complicated endgames and "queenless middlegames" is pretty good and I often rely on these as escapes when I start to get into trouble. So to start with I'm going to be working through Secrets of Pawn Endgames also by Müller and Lamprecht to both improve my pawn endgames and also work on my calculation. So as an introduction I decided to include a complicated position from one of my more recent tournaments where in the last round I was playing a friend and we reached the following position. White having just played b2-b3:
From Rocklin - Gutman

Black to move:
I'll leave this up for a day or two. Clearly black is better, but can he win this and if so, how?

You get what you pay for???

So I was reading some articles at Silman chess, it has a good selection of articles. Then I noticed something on their page.
You can click on the image to see the full-size.
The question is if someone clicks on the ad does Silman chess still have to pay for it and do they still get paid for the click-through?

Round 4 Games

Some annotated games as I promised.
I annotated Abrahamyan - Liu and Goletiani - Kraai (just to prove draws can be exciting).